Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Nonfarm payrolls were up just 12,000 in October (Briefing.com consensus 120,000) and nonfarm private payrolls decreased by 28,000 (Briefing.com consensus 105,000). These numbers were depressed by the Boeing strike and likely by the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, yet with forecasts suggesting those influences could lop off something on the order of 100,000 positions, the view to October, coupled with sizable downward revisions to the August and September payroll figures, connote softness in hiring activity.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it has reinvigorated the market's view that the Fed will stay on a steady rate-cut path that will include cutting the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points at next week's FOMC meeting and again at the December FOMC meeting.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -6 bps to 4.10%
  • 3-yr: -6 bps to 4.07%
  • 5-yr: -5 bps to 4.10%
  • 10-yr: -3 bps to 4.26%
  • 30-yr: -2 bps to 4.46%