Bond Market Update

Idling

• U.S. Treasuries are sitting idle for the most part, waiting on the $39 billion 10-yr note auction results at 1:00 p.m. ET and the release of the FOMC Minutes for the September 17-18 meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET. Also quiet ahead of the release of the September CPI report and weekly initial claims data on Thursday. U.S. Dollar Index +0.1% to 102.69.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -2 bps to 3.96%
  • 3-yr: unch at 3.88%
  • 5-yr: unch at 3.86%
  • 10-yr: +1 bp to 4.04%
  • 30-yr: unch at 4.32%

• News:
  • China's Ministry of Finance announced a briefing for Saturday, October 12, to discuss fiscal policy and economic development
  • Hurricane Milton (currently Category 5) expected to hit west-central cost of Florida tonight or early Thursday
  • New Zealand cut its overnight call rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%, as expected
  • The Reserve Bank of India left its repurchase rate unchanged at 6.50%, as expected, and changed its stance to neutral from withdrawal of accommodation
  • ECB member Villeroy pointed to the prospect of another rate cut at the October meeting
  • Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (FOMC voter) says will make rate decision on meeting-by meeting basis
  • FTSE Russell announced South Korea bonds will be included in its WGBI Index, effective November 2025, and that India's bonds will be added to the FTSE Emerging Markets Government Bond Index, effective September 2025, according to Reuters
  • London-based Rio Tinto announced the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium for $6.7 billion, or $5.85 per share, in cash
  • Germany's trade balance in August was larger than expected on better demand from the U.S. and UK
  • Boeing withdraws contract offer for machinists and says further negotiations do not make sense at this point; S&P places on Credit Watch Negative
  • MBA weekly Mortgage Applications Index -5.1% wk/wk with refinance applications -9.0% and purchase applications flat
• Commodities:
  • WTI Crude: -0.6% to $73.11/bbl
  • Gold: +0.1% to $2637.80/ozt
  • Copper: -1.1% to $4.41/lb
• Currencies:
  • EUR/USD: -0.2% to 1.0959
  • GBP/USD: -0.2% to 1.3083
  • USD/CNH: flat at 7.0721
  • USD/JPY: +0.3% to 148.67
• Data out Today:
  • 07:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (actual -5.1%; prior -1.3%)
  • 10:00 ET: August Wholesale Inventories (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.2%)
  • 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior +3.89M)
  • 14:00 ET: FOMC Minutes for Sept. 17-18 meeting
• Treasury Auctions:
  • 13:00 ET: $39 bln 10-yr Treasury note auction results