Bond Market Update

Yields Rise to Multi-Week Highs

• U.S. Treasuries remain near lows that were reached in immediate reaction to the solid jobs report for September, which reduced the implied likelihood of a 50-bps rate cut on November 7 to just 7.6% from 32.1% yesterday and 53.3% a week ago. The post-data retreat has been paced by shorter tenors, lifting the 2-yr yield past its 50-day moving average (3.842%) to its highest level in a month while yields on 10s and 30s are at levels not seen in nearly two months. Equities started the day firmly in the green, but they have faced some early pressure that has narrowed the early gain in the S&P 500 to just 0.2% while the Russell 2000 (+1.0%) outperforms.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +16 bps to 3.87%
  • 3-yr: +15 bps to 3.78%
  • 5-yr: +13 bps to 3.77%
  • 10-yr: +10 bps to 3.95%
  • 30-yr: +8 bps to 4.26%