Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 28 increased by 6,000 to 225,000 (Briefing.com consensus 223,000) while continuing jobless claims for the week ending September 21 decreased by 1,000 to 1.826 million.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that initial jobless claims, a leading indicator, remain well below recession-like levels (the average of initial claims for the last five recessions, excluding the COVID recession, was 458,000), imparting an encouraging understanding that the labor market might be bending but it isn't breaking.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +4 bps to 3.68%
  • 3-yr: +5 bps to 3.60%
  • 5-yr: +5 bps to 3.60%
  • 10-yr: +3 bps to 3.82%
  • 30-yr: +2 bps to 4.15%