Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Durable goods orders declined 0.8% month-over-month in September (Briefing.com consensus -0.9%) following a downwardly revised 0.8% decline (from 0.0%) in August. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%) following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase (from 0.5%) in August.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it had a split growth personality. A 0.5% increase in nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft conveyed a pickup in business spending, yet the 0.3% decline in shipments of nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which factors into GDP computations, declined 0.3% on the heels of a 0.1% decline in August and a 0.4% decline in July.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -2 bps to 4.05%
  • 3-yr: -3 bps to 3.98%
  • 5-yr: -2 bps to 4.00%
  • 10-yr: -2 bps to 4.18%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 4.45%