Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• The ADP Employment Change Report for September showed 143,000 jobs were added to private-sector payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 120,000) following an upwardly revised 103,000 (from 99,000) in August. Additionally, it revealed a slowdown in pay gains for job-stayers and job-changers.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it threaded the soft landing needle almost perfectly. Payroll growth was decent, wage inflation moderated, and job gains were recorded in the goods producing sector (42,000) and the service-providing sector (101,000), and payroll increases were seen across all geographic regions. The only blemish really was the 8,000 decline seen in payroll changes at small businesses.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: +3 bps to 3.65%
  • 3-yr: +5 bps to 3.57%
  • 5-yr: +5 bps to 3.57%
  • 10-yr: +6 bps to 3.80%
  • 30-yr: +7 bps to 4.15%