Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 12 decreased by 19,000 to 241,000 (Briefing.com consensus 270,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending October 5 increased by 9,000 to 1.867 million.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it is muddled by the effects of the hurricanes, yet it is being greeted with a sense of pleasant surprise that initial jobless claims were much better than feared.
• September retail sales increased 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following an unrevised 0.1% increase in August. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%) following an upwardly revised 0.2% increase (from 0.1%) in August. Control group sales, which factor into GDP computations, were up 0.7%.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that consumer spending on goods accelerated in September with notable increases seen in many discretionary categories like miscellaneous store retailers (+4.0%), clothing and clothing accessories (+1.5%), and food services and drinking places (+1.0%). This is a "no landing" type of report.
• The October Philadelphia Fed Index increased to 10.3 (Briefing.com consensus 4.0) from 1.7 in September, led by a jump in the new orders index to 14.2 from -1.5. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 0.0.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed region accelerated in October with future indicators also suggesting more widespread expectations for growth over the next six months.
• Yield check:
  • 2-yr: +5 bps to 3.99%
  • 3-yr: +5 bps to 3.90%
  • 5-yr: +6 bps to 3.90%
  • 10-yr: +5 bps to 4.07%
  • 30-yr: +5 bps to 4.35%