Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Import prices declined 0.4% month-over-month in September following a 0.2% decline in August. Excluding fuel, import prices were up 0.1% month-over-month for the third straight month. On a year-over-year basis, import prices were down 0.1% while import prices excluding fuel were up 1.8%.
• Export prices fell 0.7% month-over-month in September following a 0.9% decline in August. Excluding agricultural products, export prices were down 0.9% month-over-month following a 0.7% decline in August.  Export prices were down 2.1% year-over-year while export prices excluding agricultural products were down 1.8%.
• Strikingly, yields went up after the import-export price news, perhaps with some attention being paid to the price index for nonfuel imports seeing its largest year-over-year advance since December 2022. The 2-yr note yield, at 3.92% before the report, is at 3.94% now. The 10-yr note yield, at 4.01% in front of the report, is at 4.02% now.
• Yield check:
  • 2-yr: -1 bp to 3.94%
  • 3-yr: -1 bp to 3.85%
  • 5-yr: -1 bp to 3.85%
  • 10-yr: -2 bps to 4.02%
  • 30-yr: -3 bps to 4.30%