Bond Market Update

Back-end loaded

• NY Fed says "Median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% at the one-year horizon, increased to 2.7% from 2.5% at the three-year horizon, and increased to 2.9% from 2.8% at the five-year horizon. The increases at the three- and five-year horizons were most pronounced for respondents with at most a high school degree. The survey's measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at the one-year horizon, increased at the three-year horizon and remained unchanged at the five-year horizon."
• Inflation-sensitive back end of the curve continues to lead today's gains.
• Yield check:
  • 2-yr: +1 bp to 3.95%
  • 3-yr: unch at 3.86%
  • 5-yr: -2 bps to 3.86%
  • 10-yr: -3 bps to 4.04%
  • 30-yr: -4 bps to 4.34%