After Hours Report

The S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%), and DJIA (+0.2%) finished the month and quarter on a modestly positive note by closing near session highs after a choppy session of mixed sector strength.

The healthcare sector (+2.5%) led the seven advancing S&P 500 sectors, rising after President Trump announced that Pfizer (PFE 25.48, +1.62, +6.81%) will lower the prices of its medications in the U.S. and sell some through a new government-run direct-to-consumer site, TrumpRx. Eli Lilly (LLY 762.50, +35.99, +4.95%) also gained on reports it is negotiating to participate, while Merck (MRK 83.92, +5.34, +6.80%), Amgen (AMGN 282.20, +8.23, +3.00%), and other large-cap peers followed higher, lifting the broader sector.

The positive headline catalyst culminated in a strong day for what has been the most underbought sector this year, with today's gains lifting the sector back into positive territory for the year. 

The major averages also benefitted from a 0.9% gain in the information technology sector, which unsurprisingly finished as the best performing sector this quarter with a 13.0% quarter-to-date gain.

NVIDIA (NVDA 186.58, +4.72, +2.60%) traded to a new record high level, while the broader PHLX Semiconductor Index finished up 0.9%, capping an impressive 12.3% advance in September.

Meanwhile, the consumer discretionary (-0.6%) and communication services (-0.5%) incurred modest losses as several of their key mega-cap names traded lower.

The energy sector (-1.1%) was once again the top laggard, with crude oil futures settling today's session $1.11 lower (-1.8%) at $62.37 per barrel. The financials sector (-0.5%) rounds out today's four retreating S&P 500 sectors.

Smaller cap indices such as the Russell 2000 (+0.1%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.1) also underperformed the broader market, despite today's economic data providing a boost to the market's expectations for additional rate cuts this year. 

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.2 in September (Briefing.com consensus: 96.0%) from an upwardly revised 97.8 in August, reinforcing expectations for further Fed easing. The CME FedWatch tool now shows a 96.7 percent chance of a 25-basis point cut in October (from 89.8% yesterday) and a 77.7 percent chance of another cut in December (from 66.8% yesterday).

Commentary from Fed officials was mixed today. Fed Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson (FOMC voting member) noted downside risks to employment and upside risit ks to inflation, while Boston Fed President Susan Collins (FOMC voting member) said modest easing could be appropriate, but a restrictive stance remains warranted. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (FOMC voting member) said he is not overly concerned about the labor market.

In other macro developments, a government shutdown is still imminent as the funding deadline expires at midnight with no resolution in sight. While the market has been largely unphased by the looming shutdown, it would prevent the release of several key economic data reports, which could further complicate the market's monetary policy expectations. 

For now, the market remains almost certain of additional easing this year, providing another tailwind for equities in what was a surprisingly strong September that saw the S&P 500 (+3.5% month-to-date), Nasdaq Composite (+5.6% month-to-date), and DJIA (+1.9% month-to-date) all capture decent month-to-date gains.

U.S. Treasuries ended Tuesday on a mixed note, as 10s and 30s recorded modest losses while shorter tenors finished in the green. The 2-year note yield settled down 3 basis points to 3.60% (-2 basis points in September) and the 10-year note yield settled up one basis point to 4.15% (-8 basis points in September).

• Nasdaq Composite: +17.3% YTD
• S&P 500: +13.7% YTD
• Russell 2000: +9.3% YTD
• DJIA: +9.1% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +4.6% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.2 in September (Briefing.com consensus 96.0) from an upwardly revised 97.8 (from 97.4) in August. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 99.2.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that consumers felt much less positive about business conditions, with thoughts about job availability hitting multi-year lows. That consideration will underpin the market's thinking that another rate cut is at least coming at the October FOMC meeting.
• The Chicago PMI hit 40.6 in September (Briefing.com consensus 41.0), down from 41.5 in August.
• The FHFA Housing Price Index was down 0.1% month-over-month in July after decreasing 0.2% in June.
• The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index was up 1.9% year-over-year in July (Briefing.com consensus 1.9%), down from a revised 2.2% (from 2.1%) in June.
• Job openings increased to 7.227 million in August from a revised 7.208 million (from 7.181 million) in July.

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX +0.6%, FTSE +0.5%, CAC +0.2%
• Asia: Nikkei -0.3%, Hang Seng +0.9%, Shanghai +0.5%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil -1.11 @ 62.37
• Nat Gas +0.03 @ 3.30
• Gold +18.20 @ 3873.40
• Silver -0.38 @ 46.64
• Copper -0.04 @ 4.85

After-Hours Spotlight:

• Blaize Holdings (BZAI) reveals that Yotta is its end customer under its $56 mln edge AI initiative...BZAI +6.7%
• Farmers and Merchants (FMAO) increases quarterly cash dividend by 2.82% to $0.2275 per share...FMAO +0.0
• NIKE (NKE) beats by $0.22, beats on revs, gross margin down 320 bps to 42.2%, North America revenue up 4%...NKE +0.8%
• The Beauty Health Company (SKIN) names Pedro Malha Chief Executive Officer...SKIN +0.0%

Fair Value for Wednesday, October 1:

• S&P 500: 6,741
• Nasdaq 100: 24,904
• DJIA: 46,695

For a full rundown of today's market and after hours developments, see Live In Play

• Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):
  • Alcoa (AA) to close Kwinana Refinery; updates Q3 outlook
  • Aveanna (AVAH) provides investor updates in presentation
  • CenterPoint (CNP) announces 10-yr plan to invest $65 billion for the benefit of customers; raises full year 2025 non-gaap eps guidance, initiates 2026 full year non-gaap eps guidance, and increases and extends long-term guidance
  • CRH Plc. (CRH) provides 5 year financial targets
  • Jefferies (JEF) beats by $0.21, beats on revs
  • Progress Software (PRGS) beats by $0.20, beats on revs; raises FY25 guidance above consensus
  • Vail Resorts (MTN) reports Q4 (Jul) results, misses on revs; Issues FY26 guidance
• General News
  • Congressional leaders from both parties failed to reach deal on government funding, making a government shutdown likely. Senate will try to vote today on continuing resolution to fund government through November 21, according to Politico
  • This week's jobs report and other economic data will not be released under government shutdown, CNBC
  • White House officially imposes tariffs on imports of timber, lumber, and furniture
  • White House will soon introduce "TrumpRx", a a direct to consumer website for drug purchases, according to WSJ
  • Senate Democrats weigh short-term funding measures to avert government shutdown ahead of Tuesday deadline, according to Reuters
  • Politico reporter Rachael Bade says "A top GOP official tells me President Trump is opening the door to striking some sort of health care deal with Democrats as part of the shutdown talks (tho that's unlikely to happen today obviously)"
  • California Governor Gavin Newsom signs artificial intelligence safety legislation, according to Politico
  • California Governor Gavin Newsom shifting his approach toward fossil fuels amid high gas prices and refineries closing, according to Bloomberg
  • Fed Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson gives speech on monetary policy
  • President Trump will meet with Argentina President Javier Milei in two weeks after he requested a $20 billion U.S. credit swap, according to Reuters
  • Texas surpasses New York for financial jobs, according to NY Post
  • OPEC denies reports of G8 plan to boost oil production
  • Alphabet (GOOG): YouTube to settle Trump lawsuit for $24.5 mln, according to Wall Street Journal
  • American Eagle (AEO) managed the Sydney Sweeney controversy by standing firm, according to WSJ
  • Anfield Energy (AEC) reports update regarding its confirmation drill program at its JD-7 Mine
  • Atkore International (ATKR) provides an update on planned strategic actions being taken to strengthen and improve the future financial returns for the Company
  • Aurinia Pharma (AUPH) responded to now retracted LinkedIn post
  • Aviat Networks (AVNW) announces apartnership with Intracom Telecom, a global technology systems and solutions provider, to deliver Fixed Wireless Access technology that leverages the high-capacity 28 and 39 GHz millimeter wave bands, conforming to FCC requirements for mmWave bands intended for 5G use
  • Bayer AG (BAYRY) selects Interpublic Group (IPG) as global media, production and creative agency partner for consumer health division
  • BHP (BHP): China bans BHP iron ore cargoes amid pricing dispute, according to Bloomberg
  • Boeing (BA) working on new airplane to replace Boeing 737 Max, according to WSJ
  • Canadian Nat'l Rail (CNI) publishes seasonal winter plan
  • Dana Inc (DAN) extends employment of current Chairman and Chief Executive Officer R. Bruce McDonald to build momentum across several key initiatives
  • DocuSign (DOCU): OpenAI introduced DocuGPT? last night, an agent that converts contracts into structured, searchable data
  • Eli Lilly (LLY): White House official says that Eli Lilly in negotiations with Trump Administration for the next pharma deal for "TrumpRx" - CNBC
  • Etsy (ETSY) to transfer listing of its common stock to the NYSE
  • Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals (EPRX) announced 'positive' data from highest-dose cohort in the ongoing RESOLVE Trial in eosinophilic esophagitis, and plans for expansion of EP-104GI development programs
  • Exxon (XOM) to eliminate 2000 jobs, according to Bloomberg
  • Firefly Aerospace (FLY) reports that the booster stage for its Alpha rocket was destroyed during testing mishap, according to Reuters
  • Flutter Entertainment (FLUT): FanDuel confirms partnership with Amazon (AMZN) to become the o?cial odds provider and an o?cial partner of NBA & WNBA on Prime Video
  • Genasys (GNSS) announces a $9 million Long Range Acoustic Device order from the U.S. Army for the Common Remotely Operated Weapon Stations program
  • General Motors (GM) CEO Mary Barra pulling back on EV ambitions amid slowing consumer demand, according to WSJ
  • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) commences third tranche of share buyback program
  • Greenwich LifeSciences (GLSI) announced the expansion of FLAMINGO-01 clinical trial to Portugal
  • Imperial Oil (IMO) announces restructuring, expected annual expense savings of $150 million; positioned to meet or beat its medium-term production targets
  • L3Harris (LHX) awarded a $939.6 mln Navy contract
  • Labcorp Holdings Inc. (LH) announced today a collaboration with Roche (RHHBY) to implement the company's FDA-cleared VENTANA DP 600 and DP 200 slide scanners
  • Lockheed Martin (LMT): State Department has made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Government of Australia of M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and related equipment for an estimated cost of $705 mln
  • Lumen Technologies (LUMN) further enhances capital structure to fuel AI-Driven transformation
  • Magnera Corporation (MAGN) announces that production will halt and operations at the company’s Pilar, Argentina site will begin winding down
  • Matador Resources (MTDR) promotes Robert Macalik to CFO
  • Merck (MRK) reports WINREVAIR (sotatercept-csrk) reduced the risk of clinical worsening events by 76% compared to placebo in patients recently diagnosed with PAH on background therapy in Phase 3 HYPERION Trial
  • Metsera (MTSR) reports positive Phase 2b results for first- and best-in-class ultra-long acting GLP-1 RA Candidate MET-097i, enabling rapid transition into Phase 3
  • Nanobiotix (NBTX) provides updated Phase 1 results continuing to support JNJ-1900 (NBTXR3) Plus Anti-PD-1
  • Nano Labs Ltd (NA) and TradeUP Securities Inc. sign strategic MOU to pioneer tokenized U.S. equities through compliant and regulated channels
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO) resubmits Awiqli BLA to the FDA
  • Occidental Petro (OXY): Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) in talks to buy Occidental’s petrochemical unit for $10 billion, according to WSJ
  • Orion Corp (ORINY) phase 2 study of ODM-105 in insomnia did not meet primary goal
  • Otis Worldwide (OTIS) launches flexible phased elevator modernisation packages
  • Ovintiv (OVV) announces that the Toronto Stock Exchange accepted its notice of intention to renew its normal course issuer bid to purchase up to 22,287,709 common shares during the 12-month period commencing October 3, 2025, and ending October 2, 2026
  • Pfizer (PFE) confirms agreement with the Trump Administration that will ensure U.S. patients pay lower prices for their prescription medicines
  • Robinhood Markets (HOOD) could introduce prediction markets outside U.S., according to Bloomberg
  • Roche Hldg (RHHBY) reports data for sixth-generation Troponin T test offers a new level of accuracy critical for diagnosing heart attacks
  • Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) and Synspective strike 10-launch deal, boosting contracted missions to 21 electron launches
  • Rockwell Medical (RMTI) names Heather Hunter as COO
  • RTX (RTX) awarded a $5.04 bln Army contract; awarded a $127 mln modification to Missile Defense Agency contract
  • Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) submits formal request for Approval of Restart Plans to the California Office of the State Fire Marshal for the Las Flores Pipeline System
  • Sequans Communications (SQNS) authorized a program to repurchase up to 1.57 million American Depositary Shares at the current ADS ratio, representing approximately 10% of currently outstanding ADSs, through June 30, 2026
  • Serve Robotics (SERV) expands to Chicago, its first expansion into the Midwest
  • Smith & Nephew (SNN) announces that its Chief Financial Officer John Rogers will relocate from the United Kingdom and will become employed and based in the United States with effect from 29 September 2025
  • Spotify (SPOT) CEO to transition to Executive Chairman
  • Tamboran Resources (TBN) reaches final investment decision on its Shenandoah South pilot project
  • Tesla (TSLA) losing some senior staff, according to FT
  • Tilray (TLRY) announces expansion of premium craft cannabis production at its advanced EU-GMP facility in Germany; Tilray Medical enhances Tilray craft cannabis portfolio with new patient-centered offerings
  • Unisys (UIS) closes agreements with F&G Annuities & Life, to purchase group annuity contracts totaling approximately $320 million using plan assets
  • Upstream Bio (UPB) presents data showing structural and mechanistic drivers of Verekitug’s potent pharmacodynamic activity and differentiated clinical profile at European Respiratory Society Congress
  • Valneva (VALN) reports 95% Seroresponse four years after single shot of chikungunya vaccine IXCHIQ
  • VinFast Auto (VFS) provides business updates; entered into an investment cooperation and business opportunity exploration agreement with Saigon Glory
  • Visa (V) announces that Bill Ready, the CEO of Pinterest (PINS), has been elected to its board of directors, effective September 29, 2025
  • Walt Disney (DIS) sends a cease and desist letter to Character.AI, according to Axios
  • Wolfspeed (WOLF) completes financial restructuring; growth plan to leverage installed 200mm capacity
  • Zillow C (Z): FTC sues Zillow and Redfin (RKT) over illegal agreement to suppress rental advertising competition

• Upgrades:
  • Celsius Holdings (CELH) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $70
    
  • Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities, tgt $42
    
  • FIS (FIS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS, tgt $82
    
  • Semtech (SMTC) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer, tgt $81
• Downgrades:
  • Instacart (CART) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG
  • Imperial Oil (IMO) downgraded to Sell from Hold at TD Securities
    
  • IO Biotech (IOBT) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $0.39
    
  • IO Biotech (IOBT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen
    
  • MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, tgt $5
    
  • MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Wolfe Research, tgt $2
  • Metsera (MTSR) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $54
    
  • Oklo (OKLO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities, tgt $117
    
  • NuScale Power (SMR) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities, tgt $34
    
  • Spotify (SPOT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, tgt $770
    
  • Unity (U) downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC, tgt $40.80
• Others:
  • Academy Sports (ASO) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $51
    
  • Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim, tgt $20
    
  • Airbnb (ABNB) initiated with an Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $151
    
  • Alphabet (GOOGL) initiated with an Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $295
    
  • Amazon (AMZN) initiated with an Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $300
    
  • Array Technologies (ARRY) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank, tgt $11
    
  • Array Technologies (ARRY) initiated with an Outperform at Robert W. Baird, tgt $11
    
  • Booking Holdings (BKNG) initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho, tgt $5,975
    
  • Casella Waste (CWST) resumed with a Buy at Stifel, tgt $113
    
  • Chime (CHYM) initiated with a Buy at Arete, tgt $34
    
  • Circle Internet (CRCL) initiated with a Market Perform at Citizens JMP
    
  • CoreWeave (CRWV) initiated with an Outperform at Evercore ISI, tgt $175
    
  • DoorDash (DASH) initiated with an Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $350
    
  • Dorman Products (DORM) initiated with an Overweight at Stephens, tgt $185
    
  • eBay (EBAY) initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho, tgt $98
    
  • Elbit Systems (ESLT) initiated with a Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $520
    
  • Expedia (EXPE) initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho, tgt $240
    
  • FirstCash (FCFS) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord, tgt $200
    
  • GFL Environmental (GFL) resumed with a Buy at Stifel
    
  • Golar LNG (GLNG) initiated with a Buy at Goldman, tgt $54
    
  • Hess Midstream (HESM) reinstated with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $36
    
  • Innoviva (INVA) initiated with a Sell at Goldman, tgt $17
  • James Hardie (JHX) initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research, tgt $25
    
  • Lam Research (LRCX) initiated with a Hold at HSBC, tgt $127
    
  • Lyft (LYFT) initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho, tgt $24
    
  • Meta Platforms (META) initiated with an Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $925
    
  • Nuvation Bio (NUVB) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies, tgt $10
    
  • Nextracker (NXT) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank, tgt $88
    
  • Ocugen (OCGN) initiated with a Buy at Lucid Capital, tgt $15
    
  • Oneok (OKE) resumed with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $75
    
  • Pinterest (PINS) initiated with an Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $50
    
  • Republic Services (RSG) resumed with a Buy at Stifel, tgt $257
    
  • Royalty Pharma (RPRX) initiated with a Buy at Goldman, tgt $42
    
  • Schrodinger (SDGR) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $19
    
  • Simulations Plus (SLP) initiated with a Hold at TD Cowen, tgt $16
    
  • Snap (SNAP) initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho, tgt $9
    
  • TransDigm (TDG) initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital, tgt $1,420
    
  • TripAdvisor (TRIP) initiated with an Underperform at Mizuho, tgt $14
    
  • Trivago (TRVG) initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho, tgt $3.50
    
  • Uber (UBER) initiated with an Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $130
    
  • Waste Connections (WCN) resumed with a Buy at Stifel, tgt $221
    
  • Waste Management (WM) initiated with a Buy at Stifel, tgt $252
    
  • Zillow Group (ZG) initiated with an Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $100

• Econ Data (Wednesday):
  • 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 0.6%)
  • 8:15 ET: September ADP Employment Change (Briefing.com consensus 40,000; prior 54,000)
  • 9:45 ET: Final September S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (prior 52.0)
  • 10:00 ET: August Construction Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%; prior -0.1%) and September ISM Manufacturing (Briefing.com consensus 49.2%; prior 48.7%)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior -0.607 mln)

• Earnings:
  • Monday (Sep 29)
    • Pre-Market: CCL
    • After-Hours: JEF PRGS MTN
      
    Tuesday (Sep 30)
    • Pre-Market: LW PAYX UNFI
    • After-Hours: NKE
      
  • Wednesday (Oct 1)
    • Pre-Market: AYI CALM CAG RPM
      
    • After-Hours: None
      
  • Thursday (Oct 2)
    • Pre-Market: ANGO
    • After-Hours: None 
  • Friday (Oct 3)
    • Pre-Market: None
    • After-Hours: None