After Hours Report

This morning's economic data strengthened the market's rate cut expectations through the end of the year, sending the S&P 500 (+0.9%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%), and DJIA (+1.4%) to record intraday and closing highs as stocks mounted a broad-based advance. 

While the August PPI print came in slightly hotter than expected (0.4%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%), and Core CPI met expectations at 0.3%, today's focus centered around a 27,000 spike in initial jobless claims to 263,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 240,000), their highest level since October 2021. 

While neither data report was particularly comforting, investors were, at least for the short term, enthused by the effect the weaker labor data had on near-term rate cut expectations.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is now a 92.4% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut to 3.75-4.00% at the October FOMC meeting versus 80.9% yesterday, and an 86.2% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut to 3.50-3.75% at the December FOMC meeting versus 74.5% yesterday.

A 25-basis point rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting was fully priced in entering today's session. 

Stocks largely moved higher in response to the bolstered rate cut odds, with the major averages charting new record highs all the way through to the close. 

Ten S&P 500 sectors closed with gains, with only the energy sector finishing flat as crude oil futures settled today's session $1.31 lower (-2.1%) at $62.36 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the materials (+2.1%), health care (+1.7%), consumer discretionary (+1.7%), financials (+1.7%), and real estate (+1.6%) sectors closed with gains wider than 1.5%. 

Despite only a modest flow of corporate headlines, there were some impressive individual moves today.

Centene (CNC 34.08, +2.82, +9.00%) moved higher after reaffirming its FY25 guidance, Micron (MU 150.57, +10.57, +7.55%) benefitted from a price increase to $175 from $150 at Citigroup, and a Wall Street Journal report that Paramount Skydance (PSKY 17.50, +2.39, +15.82%) is preparing a majority cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 16.17, +3.63, +28.95%) sent both stocks sharply higher.

Tesla (TSLA 368.81, +21.02, +6.04%) was the top performer among the market's largest names amid a relatively subdued session for the mega-caps. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF closed with a 0.5% gain.

While most pockets of the market displayed strength today, homebuilder names outperformed in response to the bolstered rate cut probabilities, sending the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF up 2.8%.

Outside of the S&P 500, smaller-cap indices relished in the prospect of a friendlier future rate environment. The Russell 2000 advanced 1.8%, and the S&P MidCap 400 added 1.6%.

On the policy front, CNBC reported that the Senate will vote Monday on Stephen Miran's Fed Governor nomination, potentially seating him in time for the September FOMC meeting. Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled he intends to expand the list of candidates under consideration for President Trump's next Fed Chair nomination.

U.S. Treasuries ended Thursday with slim gains in longer tenors, while the short underperformed as the market pondered the implications of today's economic data. The entire complex faced some pressure during the final two hours of action even though the U.S. Treasury completed this week's strong note and bond auction slate with a 30-year bond reopening that was right on the screws.

The 2-year note settled unchanged at 3.53%, the 10-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.01%, and the 30-year note yield settled down three basis points at 4.65%. 

• Nasdaq Composite: +14.2% YTD
• S&P 500: +12.0% YTD
• Russell 2000: + 8.6% YTD
• DJIA: +8.4% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +6.4% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• August CPI 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.2%, August Core CPI 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.3%
  • The key takeaway from the report (for Main Street) is that food prices were starkly elevated in August (+0.5%), as were shelter (+0.4%), apparel (+0.5%), transportation services (+1.0%), and gasoline (+1.9%) prices.
• Weekly Initial Claims 263K (Briefing.com consensus 240K); Prior was revised to 236K from 237K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.939 mln; Prior was revised to 1.939 mln from 1.940 mln
  • The key takeaway from the report is rooted in the eye-opening initial jobless claims print, which will be construed in the market's mind as a weakening labor market signal and another basis for the Fed to cut rates in September, as well as in October and December.
• The Treasury Budget for August showed a deficit of $344.8 billion compared to a deficit of $380.1 billion in the same period a year ago. The August deficit resulted from outlays ($689.1 billion) exceeding receipts ($344.3 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted so the August deficit cannot be compared to the July deficit of $291.1.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it underscores the large budget deficit the Treasury is running and how much larger it would be if not for the ramp-up in customs duties this fiscal year.

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX +0.3%, FTSE +0.8%, CAC +0.8%
• Asia: Nikkei +1.2%, Hang Seng -0.4%, Shanghai +1.7%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil -1.31 @ 62.36
• Nat Gas -0.10 @ 2.93
• Gold -8.10 @ 3673.80
• Silver +0.55 @ 42.15
• Copper +0.04 @ 4.66

After-Hours Spotlight:

• Adobe (ADBE) beats by $0.13, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs in-line... ADBE +3.3%
• RH (RH) misses by $0.28, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs in-line; lowers FY26 revenue growth guidance... RH -4.2%

Fair Value for Friday, September 12:

• S&P 500: 6,593
• Nasdaq 100: 24,017
• DJIA: 46,138

For a full rundown of today's market and after hours developments, see Live In Play

• Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):
  • Centene (CNC) will reaffirm guidance at meetings with investors
  • Dow (DOW) releases presentation ahead of conference; Expects 3Q results in-line with current consensus expectations
  • KalVista Pharmaceuticals (KALV) beats by $0.17, beats on revs
  • Lovesac (LOVE) beats by $0.25, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Oxford Industries (OXM) beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance, revs guidance
  • Take-Two (TTWO) provides investor updates in presentation
• General News
  • AbbVie (ABBV) has settled litigation with all generic manufacturers that filed abbreviated new drug applications with the FDA for generic versions of upadacitinib tablets, which AbbVie markets as RINVOQ
  • AerCap (AER) approved a share repurchase program authorizing total repurchases of up to $750 mln through December 31, 2025
  • AeroVironment (AVAV) announces that its Switchblade 600 loitering munition system has achieved a significant milestone with its first-ever air launch from an MQ-9A Reaper Unmanned Aircraft System
  • Alaska Air (ALK) names Diana Birkett Rakow as CEO of its Hawaiian Airlines segment
  • AllianceBernstein (AB) announces assets under management increased to $844 mln during August 2025 from $830 bln at end of July
  • Apple (AAPL) replacing some Broadcom (AVGO) chips with its own, according to Digitimes
  • Apple (AAPL): iPhone price hikes expected to continue, according to Bloomberg
  • Argan (AGX) increases quarterly cash dividend 33% to $0.50/share from $0.375/share
  • Arrowhead (ARWR) files complaint for declaratory judgment against Ionis Pharma and its '333 patent
  • AstraZeneca (AZN) reports ENHERTU Type II Variation application validated in the EU for previously treated patients with HER2 positive metastatic solid tumors
  • Baker Hughes (BKR) announces a significant award from Turkish Petroleum and Turkish Petroleum Offshore Technology Center to supply subsea production and intelligent completion systems in the country’s strategic Sakarya Gas Field Phase 3
  • BIT Mining (BTCM) announced the purchase of an additional 17,221 SOL to add to the Company's growing SOL treasury
  • Boeing (BA) discusses several topics at Morgan Stanley conference -- culture, production, union vote
  • Boeing (BA) awarded a $282.5 mln modification to previously awarded Air Force contract
  • Citi (C) CEO expects more deals and sees a low likelihood of recession, according to Bloomberg
  • Community Health (CYH) appointed CFO/President Kevin J. Hammons as Interim Chief Executive Officer effective October 1, replacing Tim L. Hingtgen, who is retiring on September 30
  • Constellation Energy (CEG): Trump adminstration explores Indian Point nuclear restart; Holtec calls effort unlikely, according to Barron's
  • Curtiss-Wright (CW) announces a $200 mln expansion of its 2025 share repurchase program
  • CVS Health (CVS) hires Alvarez & Marsal Inc. to help with cash flow and operations for its Omnicare unit, according to Bloomberg Law
  • Daqo New Energy (DQ) provides update on subsidiary litigation event
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) lost appeal to Medicaid whistblower lawsuit, according to Reuters
  • GE Vernova (GEV): CEO sees $50 bln in 2025 orders, rising hyperscaler demand, wind market softness in Morgan Stanley conference appearance
  • Google (GOOG) remove some data fees in Europe, according to Reuters
  • Health Catalyst (HCAT) announces appointment of Ben Albert as President and COO
  • Hubbell's (HUBB) CFO Bill Sperry to retire; Joseph Capozzoli to succeed
  • Huntington Ingalls (HII) and Babcock International Group sign a memorandum of understanding to bring together HII’s REMUS unmanned underwater vehicles and Babcock’s world-leading submarine Weapon Handling and Launch Systems
  • Huntington Ingalls (HII) is partnering with shipyards and fabricators in multiple states to grow throughput and meet increased demand for ships by U.S. Navy
  • Hyundai Motor (HYMLF): Hyundai-LG Georgia battery plant faces 2–3 month delay after worker shortages post-immigration raid, according to Bloomberg
  • Infosys (INFY) Board approves buyback of up to 2.41% of equity shares
  • InterDigital (IDCC) awarded injunction against Disney in Brazil
  • JPMorgan (JPM) to accelerate hiring in Asia, according to Reuters
  • Lazard (LAZ) reports August AUM of ~$258.4 bln
  • Magna (MGA) names Philip Fracassa Chief Financial Officer
  • Maze Therapeutics (MAZE) announces positive clinical results from the Phase 1 healthy volunteer study of MZE782, an oral small molecule targeting the solute transporter, SLC6A19
  • Merck (MRK) reports CAPVAXIVE (Pneumococcal 21-valent Conjugate Vaccine) Demonstrates Positive Immune Responses in Children and Adolescents at Increased Risk of Pneumococcal Disease
  • Meta Platforms (META): FTC launches inquiry into AI chatbots acting as companions
  • MOGU Board (MOGU) approved a strategic allocation of up to US$20 million corporate assets to digital currencies
  • Nutex Health (NUTX) disclosed litigation updates
  • Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) announces that Kaz Nejatian COO of Shopify (SHOP) has been appointed CEO and member of the Board of Directors
  • Oracle (ORCL) discloses that it initiated plans to restructure; costs estimate to be $1.6 bln
  • P10, Inc.'s (PX) Hark Capital announces the closing of a $50 mln NAV facility with Pharos IV-A, L.P., a middle-market private equity fund focused on healthcare companies that aim to improve the patient experience of care, increase access to care within underserved communities, and reduce the total cost of healthcare
  • Pan Am Silver (PAAS) reports June 30 mineral reserves
  • Paramount Skydance (PSKY): CNBC's Faber says PSKY bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) could come as soon as next week
  • Personalis (PSNL): CATE clinical trial launched to demonstrate the clinical utility of ctDNA-Guided treatment in breast cancer using the Ultrasensitive NeXT Personal Test
  • Petrobras (PBR) awards major contract to Vallourec to support $1 bln offshore OCTG Projects
  • PureTech (PRTC) founded entity Seaport Therapeutics advances second therapeutic candidate into clinical development with dosing of first participant in Phase 1 Study of GlyphAgo (SPT-320)
  • Qiagen (QGEN) achieves CE-IVDR certification for its full portfolio of QIAstat-Dx syndromic testing systems and panels
  • Red Cat Holdings' (RCAT) Black Widow System approved for NATO NSPA Catalogue
  • Redwire (RDW) opens new rapid capabilities facility to advance the development of space-based defense systems
  • Revolution Medicines (RVMD) shares new clinical results supporting initiation of RASolute 303, a Global Phase 3 registrational trial of Daraxonrasib in first line metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma
  • Royal Caribbean (RCL) increases quarterly cash dividend 33% to $1.00/share from $0.75/share
  • Royalty Pharma (RPRX) provides highlights from Investor Day to drive value creation
  • Sanofi (SNY) receives fast track designation for SAR402663
  • Shopify (SHOP) discloses that Chief Operating Officer and Vice President of Product, Kasra Nejatian, will step down on September 12, 2025; Executive team will assume Nesjatian's responsibilities
  • Solaris Resources Inc. (SLSR) announces the signing of a landmark agreement with the Pueblo Shuar Arutam organization, marking a major milestone in the Company’s social engagement efforts and reinforcing the strong momentum behind its flagship Warintza Project in southeastern Ecuador
  • Starbucks (SBUX) opens first Spain flagship store inside Real Madrid’s Bernabéu Stadium
  • Uber (UBER): DoJ sues Uber, alleging discrimination against riders with disabilities, according to Bloomberg
  • Udemy (UDMY) announces $50 million share repurchase program
  • Victory Capital (VCTR) reports total assets under management of $303.7 bln as of August 31, 2025, up from $299.8 bln as of July 31, 2025
  • Virtus Investment Partners (VRTS) reports August AUM
  • VNET Group (VNET) secures 40MW wholesale order for IDC Campus
  • Volkswagen (VWAGY) to push back against Chinese competition entering EU, according to FT
  • Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and Nielsen have signed a new, long-term, multi-year deal, effective immediately
  • Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): Paramount-Skydance (PSKY) preps majority cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, according to WSJ
  • WeRide (WRD) expands Autonomous Robobus into Belgium
  • Wolfspeed (WOLF) announces the commercial launch of its 200mm SiC materials products, marking a significant milestone in the company’s mission to accelerate the industry’s transition from silicon to silicon carbide
  • Xylem (XYL) and Amazon partner on smart water upgrades to save more than 1.3 bln liters annually in Mexico

• Upgrades:
  • Aon plc (AON) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $430
  • AvalonBay (AVB) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist, tgt $218
    
  • Bill (BILL) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, tgt $70
    
  • Chewy (CHWY) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank, tgt $45
    
  • Chewy (CHWY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Seaport Research, tgt $47
    
  • EPR Properties (EPR) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $56
    
  • MGE Energy (MGEE) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Ladenburg, tgt $83
    
  • Nvidia (NVDA) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson, tgt $210
    
  • Thermo Fisher (TMO) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $550
    
  • W.P. Carey (WPC) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $72
    
  • Zscaler (ZS) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Freedom Capital, tgt $320
• Downgrades:
  • Apple (AAPL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson, tgt $250
    
  • Apple (AAPL) downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at Phillip Securities, tgt $200
    
  • AMD (AMD) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Erste Group
    
  • Grupo Cibest S.A. (CIB) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities, tgt $49
    
  • Elme Communities (ELME) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist, tgt $2
    
  • FedEx (FDX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities, tgt $240
    
  • Four Corners Property Trust (FCPT) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $27
  • Iridium (IRDM) downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James, tgt $26
  • UPS (UPS) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities, tgt $83
    
  • Waste Management (WM) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Erste Group
• Others:
  • 10x Genomics (TXG) initiated with a Neutral at Piper Sandler, tgt $15
    
  • Atlassian (TEAM) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim, tgt $225
    
  • Borr Drilling (BORR) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup, tgt $3.25
    
  • Celsius Holdings (CELH) initiated with a Buy at Goldman, tgt $72
    
  • Eaton (ETN) initiated with an Outperform at Daiwa, tgt $390
  • Exagen (XGN) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley, tgt $15
    
  • Fannie Mae (FNMA) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank, tgt $20
    
  • Freddie Mac (FMCC) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank, tgt $25
    
  • GitLab (GTLB) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim, tgt $70
    
  • Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $4
    
  • Midland States (MSBI) reinstated with an Equal Weight at Stephens, tgt $21
    
  • Palladyne AI (PDYN) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies, tgt $8
    
  • Primo Brands (PRMB) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $25
    
  • Sezzle (SEZL) initiated with a Hold at TD Cowen, tgt $82
    
  • Solventum (SOLV) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies, tgt $80
    
  • SoundHound (SOUN) initiated with a Perform at Oppenheimer
    
  • Synaptics (SYNA) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank, tgt $85

• Econ Data (Friday):
  • 10:00 ET: Preliminary September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Briefing.com consensus 59.2; prior 58.2)

• Earnings:
  • Monday (Sep 8)
    • Pre-Market: PL NFE
    • After-Hours: CASY AVO
      
    Tuesday (Sep 9)
    • Pre-Market: CNM MOMO KFY SAIL
    • After-Hours: AVAV CVGW GME RBRK SNPS
      
  • Wednesday (Sep 10)
    • Pre-Market: CHWY
      
    • After-Hours: OXM
      
  • Thursday (Sep 11)
    • Pre-Market: KR LOVE
    • After-Hours:  ADBE RH
  • Friday (Sep 12)
    • Pre-Market: None
    • After-Hours: None