After Hours Report

The S&P 500 (+1.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.4%) reached fresh intraday and closing high levels following the release of the July CPI, which was largely in line with expectations and proved to be a catalyst for a definitively winning session. 

The S&P 500 reached a peak level of 6,446.55 before closing just below at 6,445.76. The Nasdaq Composite followed a similar trend, peaking at 21,689.68 and closing at 21,681.90. 

Total CPI increased 0.2% month-over-month, as expected, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3%, also as expected. Those readings left CPI up 2.7% year-over-year, unchanged from June, and core CPI up 3.1% year-over-year versus 2.9% in June.

While there were some component indexes that exhibited tariff-induced inflationary pressures, the headline readings were better than feared and enough to at least temporarily quell inflation concerns.

The results of the readings further cement the strong probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 94.4% probability of a September rate cut, up from 85.9% a day ago. Furthermore, there is now a 60.5% probability of a second 25 basis-point rate cut at the October meeting, with a 49.3% probability of a third cut in December. 

The idea of a friendlier interest rate environment was especially beneficial to smaller-cap stocks today. The market's risk-on mindset saw the Russell 2000 advance an impressive 3.0%, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 added 2.3%.

Large-cap and mega-cap stocks still advanced, just at a level that was more in line with the broader market. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+1.3%) slightly outperformed the market-weighted S&P 500 (+1.1%), with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+1.0%) posting a similar gain. 

Today's broad-based buying interest saw advancers outpace decliners by a nearly 22-to-5 ratio on the NYSE and a nearly 3-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. 

All eleven S&P 500 sectors finished in positive territory, with the communication services (+1.8%), information technology (+1.4%), financials (+1.2%), materials (+1.1%), and industrials (+1.1%) sectors closing with gains wider than 1.0%.

Though it was easy to find strength among nearly every cohort of stocks, airline companies and chipmakers were notably impressive today.

American Airlines (AAL 12.98, +1.40, +12.09%), Delta Air Lines (DAL 58.44, +4.94, +9.23%), and Southwest Air (LUV 30.72, +1.66, +5.73%) helped propel the Dow Jones Transportation Average to a 3.0% gain, while outside of the index, United Airlines (UAL 98.47, +9.14, +10.23%) and JetBlue Airways (JBLU 4.79, +0.52, +12.18%) also posted double-digit gains.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index also rose 3.0%, with companies such as NXP Semi (NXPI 220.05, +14.90, +7.26%), Microchip (MCHP 64.50, +3.55, +5.82%), and Intel (INTC 21.81, +1.16, +5.62%) making up for a subdued performance from NVIDIA (NVDA 183.16, +1.10, +0.60%). 

With no major news beyond the July CPI, the market maintained its early upward momentum, lifting the major averages throughout the session, while tomorrow's absence of significant economic data will test whether the rally can hold without fresh macro catalysts.

U.S. Treasuries finished Tuesday with losses in longer tenors while the front end outperformed after the release of in-line CPI and Core CPI for July. The 2-year note yield settled down two basis points to 3.73%, and the 10-year note yield settled up two basis points at 4.29%.

• Russell 2000: +2.9% WTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +1.9% WTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +1.1% WTD
• S&P 500: +0.9% WTD
• DJIA: +0.6% WTD

Reviewing today's data:

• Total CPI increased 0.2% month-over-month, as expected. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month, also as expected. Those readings left CPI up 2.7% year-over-year, unchanged from June, and core CPI up 3.1% year-over-year, up from 2.9% in June.
  • The key takeaway from the report lurks in the details. The headline readings look good, yet there are enough component indexes exhibiting tariff-induced inflation pressures (i.e., large month-over-month changes) that one can't walk away with an "all-clear" inflation signal from this report. It seems doubtful that all Fed officials will, given the 3.1% year-over-year reading for core CPI.
• The Treasury Budget for July showed a deficit of $291.1 billion (Briefing.com consensus -$140.0 billion) compared to a deficit of $243.7 billion in the same period a year ago. The July deficit resulted from outlays ($629.6 billion) exceeding receipts ($338.5 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted so the July deficit cannot be compared to the June surplus of $27.0 billion.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it showed a return to a deficit after a surprise surplus in June. Receipts from customs duties totaled $28 billion in July, increasing the year-to-date total to $136 billion.
• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.3 in July from 98.6 in June.

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE +0.2%, CAC +0.7%
• Asia: Nikkei +2.2%, Hang Seng +0.3%, Shanghai +0.5%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil -0.83 @ 63.17
• Nat Gas -0.14 @ 2.81
• Gold -6.00 @ 3398.90
• Silver +0.20 @ 38.00
• Copper +0.08 @ 4.52

After-Hours Spotlight:

• CAVA Group (CAVA) beats by $0.02, misses on revs; Same restaurant sales of +2.1%; lowers FY25 same restaurant sales guidance...CAVA -21.5%
• CoreWeave (CRWV) reports Q2 results, beats on revs...CRWV -7.5%
• Intapp (INTA) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY26 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus...INTA +24%
• KinderCare (KLC) Learning Companies misses by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides FY25 EPS in-line, revs below consensus...KLC -5.1%
• Lumentum (LITE) beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus...LITE +3.4%
• Luminar Technologies (LAZR) misses by $0.31, misses on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus; guides FY25 revs below consensus...LAZR -16.9%
• WEBTOON Entertainment (WBTN) beats by $0.24, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs above consensus; announces deal with Disney...WBTN +33%

Fair Value for Wednesday, August 13:

• S&P 500: 6,468
• Nasdaq 100: 23,938
• DJIA: 44,549

For a full rundown of today's market and after hours developments, see Live In Play

• Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):
  • ACV Auctions (ACVA) misses by $0.12, misses on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus; guides FY25 revs in-line
  • BigBear.ai (BBAI) misses by $0.65, misses on revs; guides FY25 revs below estimate
  • Cannae Holdings (CNNE) reports Q2 (Jun) results, revs in-line
  • Cardinal Health (CAH) beats by $0.04, misses on revs; guides FY26 EPS above consensus
  • Celanese (CE) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus
  • ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (IMOS) reports Q2 (Jun) results, beats on revs
  • Circle Internet Group (CRCL) reports Q2 (Jun) results, beats on revs
  • Compass Minerals (CMP) misses by $0.34, misses on revs
  • eToro Group Ltd (ETOR) beats by $0.06, Assets Under Management grew 54%
  • Fluence (FLNC) beats by $0.02, misses on revs; reaffirms FY25 revs guidance
  • Forward Air (FWRD) reports Q2 (Jun) results, misses on revs
  • Getty Images (GETY) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; On January 7, 2025 company entered into merger agreement with Shutterstock
  • Green Dot (GDOT) beats by $0.22, beats on revs; raises FY25 EPS guidance above consensus, reaffirms FY25 revs guidance
  • HighPeak Energy (HPK) misses by $0.04, misses on revs
  • Hillenbrand (HI) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides FY25 EPS above two analyst estimate, revs above estimate
  • Liquidia Technologies (LQDA) misses by $0.07, beats on revs
  • Macerich (MAC) misses by $0.01, beats on revs
  • Mercury (MRCY) beats by $0.25, beats on revs
  • Monroe Capital (MRCC) reports Q2 results; updates merger transaction
  • MSG Sports (MSGS) misses by $0.02, beats on revs
  • Oklo Inc. (OKLO) misses by $0.07
  • On (ONON) reports Q2 (Jun) results, beats on revs; raises sales outlook
  • Paysafe (PSFE) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; reaffirms FY25 EPS guidance, revs guidance
  • PubMatic (PUBM) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus
  • Repay Holdings (RPAY) reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; Reiterates outlook for FY25, including for sequential quarterly acceleration of normalized gross profit growth
  • Sea Limited (SE) misses by $0.18, beats on revs
  • Smithfield Foods (SFD) reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; reaffirms FY25 sales guidance
  • TechTarget (TTGT) reports Q2 (Jun) results, beats on revs; reaffirms outlook
  • Tencent Music (TME) beats by RMB0.12, beats on revs
  • Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE) misses by $0.08
  • ZipRecruiter (ZIP) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs in-line
• General News
  • President Trump signs executive order to extend China trade truce to November 10; tariffs remain at 30% (10% base tariff, 20% fentanyl tariffs); China retaliatory tariff also remains at 10%
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in an interview discusses President Trump's economic agenda, according to Bloomberg
  • Wall Street is concerned about the reliability of inflation data, CNBC
  • NYC developers converting closed migrant hotels into apartments, according to WSJ
  • Russian forces push 6 miles in Donetsk ahead of Trump-Putin meeting, according to NYPost
  • AbbVie (ABBV) announces a $195 million investment in its North Chicago, Illinois manufacturing plant to expand domestic active pharmaceutical ingredient production in the U.S
  • Albemarle (ALB) announces enhanced organizational structure
  • Alphabet (GOOG): Perplexity offered to purchase Google's (GOOG) Chrome for $34.5 billion, according to WSJ
  • American Eagle (AEO) foot traffic over last two weeks is down 9% yr/yr, according to Forbes
  • Apple (AAPL): Elon Musk says "Apple is behaving in a manner that makes it impossible for any AI company besides OpenAI to reach #1 in the App Store, which is an unequivocal antitrust violation"
  • Apple (AAPL): A court in Australia partially ruled against Apple & Google (GOOG, GOOGL) in a lawsuit involving Epic Games, according to Reuters
  • Artisan Partners Asset Mgmt (APAM) reports that its preliminary assets under management as of July 31, 2025 totaled $175 billion
  • Bayer AG (BAYRY) and Kumquat Biosciences enter global exclusive license and collaboration in precision oncology
  • Boeing (BA) reports July orders data; YTD deliveries of 328; YTD gross orders of 699
  • BridgeBio Oncology Therapeutics (BBOT) confirmed yesterday the closing of business combination with Helix Acquisition Corp. II (formerly Nasdaq: HLXB) closed on August 11, 2025
  • CACI Intl (CACI) awarded a $1.64 bln US Transportation Command contract
  • Cenovus Energy (CVE), Indigenous groups explore joint bid for MEG Energy (MEGEF) amid $4 bln takeover battle, according to Bloomberg
  • Citigroup (C) visits Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum, according to Bloomberg
  • Cohen & Steers (CNS) reports preliminary assets under management of $88.6 billion as of July 31, a decrease of $353 million from assets under management of $88.9 billion at June 30
  • DeFi Technologies (DEFT) provides monthly corporate update; Valour reports AUM of $947 mln, a 23% month over month increase, as of July 31
  • Eisai (ESAIY): Newron begins enrollment in pivotal phase III ENIGMA-TRS program with evenamide as add-on therapy in patients with treatment-resistant schizophrenia
  • Eli Lilly (LLY): Texas AG Ken Paxton files lawsuit against LLY for allegedly brib­ing providers to pre­scribe its medications
  • Ford Motor (F) is recalling certain 2023-2025 F-150 vehicles equipped with the Trailer Tow Max Duty package and a 9.75-inch heavy duty axle with a 3/4 float axle design
  • FTI Consulting (FCN) announced that its Chief Financial Officer, Ajay Sabherwal, will leave the Company on September 12, 2025
  • General Dynamics (GD) awarded a $322 mln modification to US Navy contract
  • Google (GOOG, GOOGL) and IBM (IBM) believe there will soon be a workable quantum computer, according to FT
  • H & R Block (HRB) CEO Jeffrey Jones II to retire; Curtis Campbell to be promoted to CEO, starting Jan 1, 2026
  • Ingersoll-Rand (IR) provides update on commencement of production at the new manufacturing facility being set up in Sanand, Gujarat
  • Insmed (INSM) announces that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved first-in-class BRINSUPRI, an oral, once-daily treatment for non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis in adults and children 12 years and older
  • Intel (INTC): President Trump posts on Truth Social that Intel CEO was a ‘success’ days after demanding resignation, according to CNBC
  • Intel (INTC): President Trump says "I met with Mr. Lip-Bu Tan, of Intel, along with Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, and Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent. The meeting was a very interesting one. His success and rise is an amazing story. Mr. Tan and my Cabinet members are going to spend time together, and bring suggestions to me during the next week"
  • Invesco (IVZ) reports preliminary month-end assets under management of $2,024.5 billion, an increase of 1.2% versus previous month-end
  • Kodiak Gas Services (KGS) announces the repurchase of $50 mln of its common stock from Frontier TopCo Partnership
  • Lazard (LAZ) reports July 2025 assets under management
  • Life360 (LIF) promotes Lauren Antonoff to be the new CEO; co-founder Chris Hulls will transition to Executive Chairman
  • Lithium Argentina (LAR) announces the execution of a framework agreement with Ganfeng Lithium Group Co. Ltd. to establish a new joint venture consolidating Ganfeng’s solely owned Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes project with Lithium Argentina’s Pastos Grandes project (85% owned) and the Sal de la Puna project
  • Lucid Group (LCID) aims to introduce Gravity EV concept this week, according to Electrek
  • MagnaChip Semi (MX) announced that YJ Kim has agreed to step down as CEO effective immediately; Continues to explore strategic alternatives; CAPEX plans to be cut by over 50% through 2027
  • Meta Platforms (META): Mark Zuckerberg says Threads just passed 400M monthly actives
  • Newmark Group (NMRK) announces the strengthening of its presence in Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana and Nevada through the execution of an alliance agreement with Mountain West Commercial Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate brokerage firm in those markets
  • NICE (NICE) announces an expanded strategic partnership with Salesforce (CRM) to deliver seamless, AI-driven customer experiences through a deeper integration between NiCE CXone Mpower and Salesforce Service Cloud
  • Novartis AG (NVS) reports ianalumab Phase III trial meets primary endpoint in ITP
  • Nuvectis Pharma (NVCT) announces the initiation of the Phase 1b Program for NXP900
  • NVIDIA (NVDA): China urged companies not to use Nvidia's H20 chip technology, according to Bloomberg
  • Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) received written agreement regarding a registrational trial design from the FDA under a Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) for the planned clinical trial of AXPAXLI
  • Oklo Inc. (OKLO) and Lightbridge Corporation (LTBR) announce a collaboration to explore the potential co-location of a Lightbridge fuel fabrication facility within Oklo’s planned advanced fuel manufacturing facility
  • Peabody Energy (BTU) appointed Malcolm J. Roberts as the Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, effective as of September 1, 2025
  • Pfizer (PFE) reports PADCEV Plus KEYTRUDA significantly improves survival for certain patients with bladder cancer when given before and after surgery
  • PONY AI Inc. (PONY) Accelerates Gen-7 Robotaxi Production with over 200 Newly Produced, On Track to Scale Up 1,000-Vehicle Fleet by Year End
  • Quipt Home Medical (QIPT) signs definitive agreement with three major health systems and hospitals to form a joint venture
  • Repay Holdings (RPAY) appoints Robert Houser as CFO, effective September 8
  • Sinclair Broadcast's (SBGI) authorizes a comprehensive strategic review for its Broadcast business
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Board approved long-term capacity plans based on market demand forecasts and TSMC’s technology development roadmap
  • USA Rare Earth (USAR) has signed a memorandum of understanding with Enduro Pipeline Services for delivery of the Company’s neo magnets, of which USAR plans to begin production in early 2026
  • Werner Enterprises (WERN) approves a new stock repurchase program under which the Company is authorized to repurchase up to 5 million shares of its common stock

• Upgrades:
  • Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (AMPH) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham, tgt $36
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler, tgt $50
  • Clearwater Analytics Holdings (CWAN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman, tgt $27
  • Five Below (FIVE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital, tgt $165
  • GDS Holdings (GDS) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital, tgt $48
  • Kohl's (KSS) upgraded to Hold from Reduce at Gordon Haskett
  • Mercury Systems (MRCY) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James, tgt $80
  • monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $260
  • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler, tgt $225
  • Resideo Technologies (REZI) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $35
  • Starbucks (SBUX) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird, tgt $115
  • Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup, tgt $10.35
• Downgrades:
  • Cogent Communications (CCOI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, tgt $33
  • Equinor (EQNR) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
  • Getty Images Holdings (GETY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at The Benchmark Company, tgt $3.50
  • Illumina (ILMN) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Daiwa, tgt $94
  • Installed Building Products (IBP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson, tgt $252
  • Lantheus Holdings (LNTH) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist, tgt $63
  • Open Text (OTEX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, tgt $33
  • PubMatic (PUBM) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley, tgt $9
  • Quest Resource (QRHC) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Northland, tgt $2.25
  • Serve Robotics (SERV) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Seaport Research Partners
  • Shopify (SHOP) downgraded to Neutral from Accumulate at Phillip Securities, tgt $150
• Others:
  • AbbVie (ABBV) assumed with an Overweight at Piper Sandler, tgt $231
  • Assurant (AIZ) initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital, tgt $238
  • Eve Holding (EVEX) assumed with a Neutral at BTIG Research
  • Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) initiated with a Buy at Daiwa, tgt $190
  • GSR III Acquisition Corp. (GSRT) initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company, tgt $19
  • SailPoint Technologies Holdings (SAIL) initiated with an Overweight at Stephens, tgt $26
  • Uranium Energy Corp (UEC) initiated with a Buy at Goldman, tgt $13
  • Xeris Pharmaceuticals (XERS) assumed with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $10

• Econ Data (Wednesday):
  • 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 3.1%)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior -3.03 mln)

• Earnings:
  • Monday (Aug 11)
    • Pre-Market: AAON B CEVA DOLE EE FNV GPRE KYMR LEGN MNDY OMI RDNT ROIV RUM TDS
    • After-Hours: ACVA AMC BBAI CNNE CE CMP FLNC FWRD GETY GDOT HPK HI MAC MRCY MLNK OKLO PUBM RPAY XENE ZIP
      
    Tuesday (Aug 12)
    • Pre-Market: CAH CRCL ETOR HUYA MSGS ONON PSFE SE SFD TTGT TME
    • After-Hours: CAE CAVA IMOS CRWV ECG HRB INTA KLC LITE LAZR WBTN
      
  • Wednesday (Aug 13)
    • Pre-Market: ARCO EAT GLBE HBM LOAR MRX PFGC SPNS SSYS
      
    • After-Hours: CSCO COHR DLO EQX IBTA SARO
      
  • Thursday (Aug 14)
    • Pre-Market: AAP AMCR AIT BIRK CLBT DE AG JD NTES NICE TPR VIPS WB
    • After-Hours: AMAT GAMB GLOB SNDK STRZ
  • Friday (Aug 15)
    • Pre-Market: FLO
    • After-Hours: None