After Hours Report

The stock market traded in a relatively stable manner following the pre-market earnings reports of several large banks and the release of the relatively tame June PPI, while dealing with some headline volatility.

The June PPI and Core PPI figures were unchanged month-over-month, and both decreased year-over-year from May. Interest rates fell in response to the optimistic data, which influences core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The 10-year note yield traded down as much as five basis points to 4.44%.

A volatile pocket of trading occurred late in the morning trade when news reports suggested President Trump is likely to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The president, himself, said in an Oval Office interview with the press pool shortly after the headlines circulated that he wouldn't rule out anything, but that it is highly unlikely that he will fire Fed Chair Powell, unless there is fraud.

The financials sector (+0.7%) was an early performer, supported by the second consecutive day of positive earnings reports from large banks.

Goldman Sachs (GS 708.82, +6.31, +0.9%), Morgan Stanley (MS 139.79, -1.80, -1.3%), and Bank of America (BAC 46.03, -0.12, -0.26%) all surpassed EPS expectations. The post-report weakness in the stocks was mainly a sell-the-news reaction following an impressive run, which also seemed to be the case yesterday.

The information technology sector (+0.3%) lagged in the early going as it was burdened by ASML (ASML 754.45, -68.57, -8.33%), which topped Q2 earnings expectations, stating that the company cannot confirm if it will deliver growth in FY26. The sector was able to recover throughout the trade and post a finishing gain, but weakness among chip makers was a notable trend that saw the PHLX Semiconductor Index finish with a loss of 0.4%.

For quite some time, only the defensive health care (+1.2%) and real estate (+1.1%) sectors traded in positive territory, with the health care sector getting added support from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 164.77, +9.60, +6.2%) reporting strong upside results for Q2 EPS and revenues and raising its FY25 guidance.

The president's clarification that it is highly unlikely that he will fire Fed Chair Powell helped stocks recover from the headline volatility, with broad-based support enabling the major averages to finish just below their session highs. Eight S&P 500 sectors finished in positive territory.

Support was distributed across stocks of all sizes, though there was a noticeable outperformance in small-cap stocks, evidenced by a 1.0% gain in the Russell 2000.

The market cap-weighted S&P 500 (+0.3%) finished similarly to the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+0.4%).

U.S. Treasuries had an exciting cash session, alternating between the inflation optimism that followed a relatively tame-looking June PPI report and the inflation angst surrounding reports that President Trump may soon fire Fed Chair Powell.

The 2-yr note yield settled down seven basis points at 3.89%, while the 10-yr note yield fell three basis points to 4.46%.

• S&P 500 +6.5% YTD
• DJIA: +4.0% YTD
• S&P 400: +0.6% YTD
• Russell 2000: -0.1% YTD

• Reviewing today's data:
  • The index for final demand was unchanged month-over-month in June (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase (from 0.1%) in May. The index for final demand, less foods and energy, was also unchanged month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.1%) in May.The index for final demand was up 2.3% year-over-year, versus 2.7% in May, while the index for final demand, less foods and energy, was up 2.6% year-over-year, versus 3.2% in May.
    • The key takeaway for the market is the disinflation seen on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. That is clearly moving in the Fed's preferred direction, and the unchanged readings for June should foster good thoughts about what the PCE Price Index for June will show when it is released.
  • Industrial production increased 0.3% month-over-month in June (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%) following an upwardly revised unchanged reading (from -0.2%) in May. The capacity utilization rate was 77.6% (Briefing.com consensus 77.4%), versus an upwardly revised 77.5% (from 77.4%) in May. Total industrial production increased 0.7% yr/yr while the capacity utilization rate was 2.0 percentage points below its long-run average.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that the jump in industrial production in June was driven mostly by an increase in the output of utilities, which tends to be volatile based on weather conditions. Manufacturing output was up, but only by a modest 0.1% despite a more conciliatory tariff environment.

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.6%
• Asia: Nikkei flat, Hang Seng -0.3%, Shanghai flat

Commodities:

• Crude Oil -0.22 @ 66.36
• Nat Gas +0.04 @ 3.59
• Gold +22.20 @ 3359.50
• Silver unch @ 38.11
• Copper -0.05 @ 5.53

After-Hours Spotlight:

• AAR Corp (AIR) beats by $0.16, beats on revs... AIR +4.0%
• Alcoa (AA) beats by $0.07, beats on revs; Continues to expect 2025 Alumina segment production and shipments of 9.5-9.7 mln metric tons and 13.1-13.3 mln metric tons, respectively... AA +1.6%
• Kinder Morgan (KMI) reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides FY25 EPS in-line... KMI +0.3%
• MP Materials (MP) commences a $500 mln underwritten public offering of its common stock... MP -5.8%
• Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides FY25 FFO in-line... REXR +0.7%
• Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) announces strategic restructuring and pipeline prioritization plan to maintain long-term, sustainable growth and provides update on ELEVIDYS label... SRPT +36.1%
• SL Green Realty (SLG) reports Q2 results; guides FY25 FFO above consensus... SLG +1.0%
• Starwood Property Trust  (STWD) announces public offering of 25.5 mln common stocks; to acquire Fundamental Income Properties Net Lease Platform for $2.2 bln... STWD -3.2%
• Synovus (SNV) beats by $0.22, net interest income grew 6% yr/yr; Issues FY25 guidance, including period end loan growth of 3-5%... SNV +1.9%
• United Airlines (UAL) beats by $0.06, misses on revs, TRASM down 4.0%; guides FY25 EPS in-line; beginning in July, UAL has seen sequential 6-point acceleration in demand... UAL -1.7%

Fair Value for Thursday, July 17:

• S&P 500: 6,304
• Nasdaq 100: 23,077
• DJIA: 44,469

For a full rundown of today's market and after hours developments, see Live In Play

• Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):
  • Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) says total steel shipments for the quarter are expected to be approximately 472,000 tons and Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of ($30) million to ($35) million
  • ASML (ASML) beats by €0.66, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus; guides FY25 revs below consensus
  • Bank of America (BAC) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line
  • Caledonia Mining (CMCL) increased production guidance at Blanket Mine for 2025
  • Capital Southwest (CSWC) provides JunQ guidance
  • Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) beats by $0.10, beats on revs
  • Diageo plc (DEO) confirmed that Debra Crew has stepped down as Chief Executive Officer and as a Board Director with immediate effect, by mutual agreement; reaffirms FY25/FY26 guidance
  • First Horizon (FHN) beats by $0.03
  • Fulton Fincl (FULT) beats by $0.13
  • Genmab (GMAB) announces net sales of DARZALEX for second quarter of 2025
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) beats by $1.26, beats on revs
  • Hancock Whitney (HWC) beats by $0.01, net interest income increased 2%
  • J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT) beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beats by $0.09, beats on revs; raises FY25 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
  • Legend Biotech (LEGN) announces preliminary sales for CARVYKTI for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2025
  • M&T Bank (MTB) beats by $0.25
  • Marten Transport (MRTN) beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) beats by $0.15, beats on revs, Investment Banking revenue down 5%; Reauthorizes share repurchase program for up to $20 bln and increases quarterly dividend by $0.075/share to $1.00/share
  • Omnicom (OMC) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line
  • Park-Ohio (PKOH) guides Q2 revs below consensus
  • Pinnacle Finl (PNFP) beats by $0.09, beats on revs
  • PNC (PNC) beats by $0.30, reports revs in-line; provides outlook
  • Progressive (PGR) reports Q2 (Jun) results
  • Prologis (PLD) beats by $0.05, beats on revs; raises FY25 core FFO guidance
  • Rio Tinto (RIO) reports Q2 production results; provides outlook
  • United Natural Foods (UNFI) lowers FY25 EPS guidance, slightly raises revenue guidance
  • Ur-Energy (URG) provided operational and construction updates for Q2 2025
• General News
  • Senate votes to advance legislation that cuts $9 bln from foreign aid and public broadcasting to a final Senate vote later today, according to WSJ
  • House will vote again this morning on Genius Act (stablecoin and cryptocurrency legislation); President Trump says Republican holdouts have agreed to flip votes to YES after meeting with him
  • President Trump says that pharma tariffs are likely by August 1 and chip tariffs will also be implemented, according to Bloomberg
  • President Trump will sign executive order to make private investments available in 401K plans, according to WSJ
  • Regulators are recommending certain smartphone displays be banned in U.S., according to Apple Insider
  • CMS announces proposed rules for hospital payments in 2026
  • USTR announces initiation of section 301 investigation of Brazil’s unfair trading practices
  • AeroVironment (AVAV) to join S&P MidCap 400; Victory Capital (VCTR) to join S&P SmallCap 600
  • Aeva (AEVA) and Daimler Truck North America to expand their agreement for the series production of Aeva’s 4D LiDAR
  • Alarm.com (ALRM) launches the ADC-T25 Smart Thermostat: advanced HVAC control at an accessible price
  • Amazon's (AMZN) Jeffrey Bezos disclosed the sale of 6,715,424 shares pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan worth more than $1.5 bln
  • Apple (AAPL) lands record-breaking 81 Emmy Award nominations with “Severance” leading as this year’s most-nominated series and “The Studio” becoming the most-nominated freshman comedy in history
  • Assurant (AIZ) COO Francesca L. Luthi to step down for personal reasons on September 15, 2025
  • AstraZeneca (AZN) provides update on anselamimab in AL amyloidosis; Results did not achieve statistical significance for the primary endpoint in overall patient population
  • Becton Dickinson (BDX) issues voluntary recall notice to reiterate that bezel kit assemblies manufactured with FR-110 resin, previously recalled in 2019, should not be used for service with the Alaris and BD Alaris Pump Module
  • CACI Intl's (CACI) chairman of the board, Michael Daniels has passed away; Board of Directors elects Lisa Disbrow as Chair of the Board of Directors
  • Cummins (CMI) increases quarterly cash dividend 10% to $2.00/share from $1.82/share
  • CVRx, Inc. (CVRX) reports Positive news on outpatient payment for Barostim
  • DeFi Technologies (DEFT) reports all-time high in SUI assets under management for Valour unit and treasury holdings
  • Denison Mines (DNN) announced the discovery of additional high-grade mineralization approximately 40 metres outside of the previously estimated mineralized domain associated with the D1 lens of the Gryphon uranium deposit
  • Diageo plc (DEO) will soon replace CEO Debra Crew, according to FT
  • Dollar Tree (DLTR): Mantle Ridge/Cobalt Advisor disclose active stake with economic exposure of 11.2% outstanding shares (23,296,608 shares)
  • Eni S.p.A. (E) announces 20-year sales and purchase agreement with Venture Global (VG)
  • Ford Motor (F) confirms recall; estimates aggregate cost of the action to be about $570 mln and will be reflected in Q2 results
  • Full House (FLL) Resorts promotes Lewis Fanger to President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer, effective July 11
  • ICON plc (ICLR) has been rated as one of the top-performing contract research organisations for phase 1 clinical trials in a benchmarking report from the independent pharmaceutical market research company Industry Standard Research
  • JD.com (JD) and Alibaba (BABA) competing in instant retail market, according to FT
  • John B. Sanfilippo & Son (JBSS) declares $0.60/share special dividend and a regular annual dividend of $0.90/share
  • KalVista Pharmaceuticals (KALV) announces UK MHRA approval of EKTERLY (sebetralstat), first and only oral on-demand treatment for hereditary angioedema
  • KBR (KBR) has been awarded FEED contract for the development of an ammonia and urea production plant by KAR Electrical Power Production Trading FZE in Basra, Iraq
  • New Fortress Energy (NFE) via a subsidiary has executed a 5-year agreement for the deployment of the Energos Winter, a 138,250 m3 floating storage and regasification unit, with the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company
  • Nvidia (NVDA) expecting first H2O licenses soon, according to Bloomberg
  • Rigetti Computing (RGTI) has achieved its mid-year performance milestone of 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity on its modular 36-qubit system, a 2x reduction in median two-qubit gate error rate from Rigetti’s previous best results on its 84-qubit single chip Ankaa-3 system
  • Sanofi (SNY) receives fast track designation for SAR446597
  • Stellantis (STLA) discontinues hydrogen fuel cell technology development program
  • TechnipFMC (FTI) awarded a significant integrated Engineering, Procurement, Construction, and Installation contract by Equinor (EQNR) for its Heidrun extension project in the Norwegian North Sea
  • Tejon Ranch (TRC): Glenbrook Questions the Unexplained and Abrupt Departure of Tejon CFO
  • Telos Corporation's (TLS) Xacta has achieved authorization from the Federal Risk and Authorization Management Program at highest level
  • Univ Elec (UEIC) unanimously appointed Richard K. Carnifax, the Company's Chief Operating Officer, as Interim Chief Executive Officer and as principal executive officer of the Company, effective immediately
  • Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA): Premier Medical announces a new collaboration with Walgreens to increase access to high-quality healthcare in local communities
  • Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) Announces Open Label Extension Data Showing Sustained Long-Term Efficacy of MIPLYFFA for the Treatment of NPC Published in the Journal of Molecular Genetics and Metabolism

• Upgrades:
  • Arm (ARM) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $210
  • Commvault (CVLT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim, tgt $210
  • Douglas Emmett (DEI) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital, tgt $17
  • Easterly Government (DEA) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital, tgt $25
  • GDS Holdings (GDS) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $46
  • Jacobs (J) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc, tgt $155
  • Palantir (PLTR) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Mizuho, tgt $135
  • PotlatchDeltic (PCH) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist, tgt $52
  • Red Rock Resorts (RRR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist, tgt $67
  • ResMed (RMD) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital, tgt $294
  • Rockwell Automation (ROK) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA, tgt $410
• Downgrades:
  • ArcelorMittal (MT) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
  • Ardent Health (ARDT) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA, tgt $14.60
  • Atlassian (TEAM) downgraded to Equalweight from Overweight at Capital One, tgt $211
  • Axalta Coating (AXTA) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital, tgt $33
  • Centene (CNC) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA, tgt $30
  • CNH Industrial (CNH) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs, tgt $11.50
  • Fluor (FLR) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
  • GitLab (GTLB) downgraded to Equalweight from Overweight at Capital One, tgt $46
  • Golden Entertainment (GDEN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist, tgt $34
  • HCA Healthcare (HCA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA, tgt $394
  • Karyopharm (KPTI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at H.C. Wainwright
  • Kilroy Realty (KRC) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital, tgt $35
  • Phillips 66 (PSX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi, tgt $130
  • SolarEdge (SEDG) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $17
  • Universal Health (UHS) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA, tgt $185
  • Valero (VLO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi, tgt $150
  • Wesco (WCC) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Stephens, tgt $200
• Others:
  • Axon (AXON) initiated with a Neutral at UBS, tgt $820
  • Karooooo (KARO) initiated with a Buy at Needham, tgt $60
  • MannKind (MNKD) assumed with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $9
  • MBX Biosciences (MBX) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer, tgt $38
  • Motorola Solutions (MSI) initiated with a Buy at UBS, tgt $490
  • MSA Safety (MSA) resumed with a Hold at Stifel, tgt $182
  • NovaGold (NG) initiated with a Buy at Citi, tgt $7
  • Oncology Institute (TOI) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley, tgt $6
  • QXO (QXO) initiated with a Buy at Citi, tgt $33
  • RBC Bearings (RBC) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank, tgt $480
  • Wave Life Sciences (WVE) initiated with a Buy at Citi, tgt $16

• Econ Data (Thursday):
  • 08:30 ET: June Retail Sales (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%; prior -0.9%) and Retail Sales, Ex-Auto (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%; prior -0.3%)
  • 08:30 ET: Initial Jobless Claims (Briefing.com consensus: 230K; prior 227K) and Continuing Jobless Claims (prior 1965K)
  • 08:30 ET: June Import Prices (prior 0.0%), Import Prices, Ex-Fuel (prior 0.3%), Export Prices (prior -0.9%), and Export Prices, Ex-Ag (prior -1.0%)
  • 08:30 ET: July Philadelphia Fed Index (Briefing.com consensus: -0.2; prior -4.0)
  • 10:00 ET: July NAHB Housing Market Index (Briefing.com consensus: 32; prior 32)
  • 10:00 ET: May Business Inventories (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; prior 0.0%)
  • 10:30 ET: EIA Natural Gas Inventories (prior +53 bcf)
  • 16:00 ET: May Net LT TIC Flows (prior -$7.8B)

• Earnings:
  • Monday (July 14)
    • Pre-Market: FAST
    • After-Hours: FBK SLP
    Tuesday (July 15)
    • Pre-Market: ACI ANGO BLK BK C ERIC JPM STT WFC
    • After-Hours: FULT HWC JBHT OMC PNFP
      
  • Wednesday (July 16)
    • Pre-Market: ASML BAC CBSH FHN GS JNJ MTB MS PNC PGR PLD
      
    • After-Hours:  AIR AA FR HOMB KBI REXR SLG SNV TFIN UAL
  • Thursday (July 17)
    • Pre-Market:  ABT CTAS CFG ELV FITB FOR GE IIIN MAN MMC NVS OFG PEP SNA TCBI TSM TRV USB WBS
    • After-Hours:  OZK CNS FNB IBKR NFLX SFNC WAL
  • Friday (July 18)
    • Pre-Market: MMM ALLY AXP ALV SCHW CMA HBAN RF SLB TFC
    • After-Hours: None
  General Motors: 5,000 members at GM's Arlington, TX assembly plant join UAW strike