After Hours Report

The stock market returned to its downside trend after yesterday's brief reprieve. Like recent sessions, headlines around US trade policy engrossed the equity market. 

The S&P 500 briefly dropped below its 200-day moving average (5,730), reaching 5,711 at its session low. The index managed to close just above that key technical level, while the Nasdaq Composite (-2.6%) and Russell 2000 (-1.6%) dropped further below their respective 200-day moving averages.

Today's close marks a 10.4% decline off the all-time high for the Nasdaq Composite reached December 16, which leaves the index in correction territory. The S&P 500 is 6.6% below its all-time high close after today's broad retreat.

The market attempted to recover a bit around mid-morning after Commerce Secretary Lutnick told CNBC that all USMCA compliant goods and services will be exempt from new tariffs for one month. The upside attempt was short-lived and the market was in a steady downtrend by the time President Trump signed the executive order detailing the exemptions this afternoon. 

Around 62% of Canadian goods and around 50% of Mexican goods are still subject to the tariffs and goods that are exempt will face tariffs again starting April 2. 

Fallout in mega caps and chipmakers also impacted the equity market today, reflecting ongoing unwinding of momentum trades. NVIDIA (NVDA 110.57, -6.73, -5.7%) was an influential decliner in that respect. 

Weakness in the semiconductor space was due in part to guidance from Marvell Technology (MRVL 72.28, -17.86, -19.8%) failing to meet high expectations. 

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.1% YTD
• S&P 500: -2.4% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -4.9% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -6.4%
• Russell 2000: -7.3% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:

• January Trade Balance -$131.4 bln (Briefing.com consensus -$93.5 bln); Prior was revised to -$98.1 bln from -$98.4 bln
  • The key takeaway from the report is that efforts to get in front of expected tariff actions drove the huge increase in imports, which will be a drag on Q1 GDP forecasts.
• Weekly Initial Claims 221K (Briefing.com consensus 234k); Prior 242K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.897 mln; Prior was revised to 1.855 mln from 1.862 mln
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the reduced level of initial claims -- a leading indicator -- will temper concerns for the time being about the labor market showing more pronounced signs of weakening.
• Q4 Productivity-Rev. 1.5% (Briefing.com consensus 1.2%); Prior 1.2%, Q4 Unit Labor Costs - Rev. 2.2% (Briefing.com consensus 3.0%); Prior 3.0%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that both components had the right skew for market sentiment in that productivity was higher than previously reported while unit labor costs (an inflation gauge) were lower than previously reported, aided by the improved productivity.
• January Wholesale Inventories 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%); Prior was revised to -0.4% from -0.5%

Looking ahead, market participants receive the Employment Situation Report for February at 8:30 ET. Other data includes the January Consumer Credit report at 3:00 ET.

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX +1.6%, FTSE -0.8%, CAC +0.3%
• Asia: Nikkei +0.9%, Hang Seng +3.3%, Shanghai +1.2%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil +0.16 @ 66.43
• Nat Gas -0.14 @ 4.32
• Gold +0.30 @ 2926.00
• Silver +0.19 @ 33.31
• 3Copper unchanged @ 4.80

After-Hours Spotlight:

• Broadcom (AVGO) beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus... AVGO up 8.8%
• Costco (COST) misses by $0.07, reports revs in-line, adjusted comps of +9.1%... COST down 1.0%
• Gap (GAP) beats by $0.16, beats on revs, comps up +3%; guides FY26 revs in-line... GAP up 15.8%
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS and revs below consensus; guides FY25 EPS in-line; Court date for DOJ/Juniper case is July 9... HPE down 16.9%
• Samsara (IOT) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS above consensus, revs in-line... IOT down 7.3%

Fair Value for Friday, March 7:

• S&P 500: 5,747
• Nasdaq 100: 20,086
• DJIA: 42,631

For a full rundown of today's market and after hours developments, see Live In Play

• Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):
  • America's Car-Mart (CRMT) beats by $0.27, beats on revs
  • Bally’s Corporation (BALY) reports Q4 results; construction of permanent Chicago casino has broken ground
  • BitFuFu (FUFU) announces february 2025 bitcoin mining and operation updates
  • BJ's Wholesale (BJ) beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS in-line
  • BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides FY25 revs in-line
  • Buckle (BKE) reports February comp sales declined 1.3% yr/yr
  • Burlington Stores (BURL) beats by $0.30, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
  • Canadian Natrl Res (CNQ) reports EPS in-line; raises dividend
  • CompoSecure (CMPO) reports Q4 results; expects mid-single-digit net sales growth yr/yr in 2025
  • Cracker Barrel (CBRL) beats by $0.30, reports revs in-line, comps +4.7%; raises lower end of FY25 revenue guidance; raises FY25 adjusted EBITDA outlook
  • Cross Country (CCRN) misses by $0.07, beats on revs
  • Descartes (DSGX) reports EPS in-line, misses on revs
  • Fortuna Silver Mines (FSM) misses by $0.04; beats on revs
  • Gevo (GEVO) announced that it will delay the issuance of its fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings release and investor conference call previously scheduled for March 6, 2025
  • GMS (GMS) misses by $0.48, misses on revs
  • InterDigital (IDCC) signs new license agreement with a major Chinese smartphone vendor; increases Q1 guidance substantially
  • JD.com (JD) beats by RMB1.10, beats on revs
  • Kodiak Gas Services (KGS) reports Q4 results, misses on revs
  • Kroger (KR) beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line, comps +2.4%; guides FY25 EPS below consensus
  • LandBridge (LB) reports Q4 (Dec) results, misses on revs; reiterates FY25 outlook
  • LendingTree (TREE) reports Q4 results
  • LGI Homes (LGIH) closes 351 homes in February 2025; As of February 28 the Company had 150 active selling communities
  • Logitech Int'l SA (LOGI) reaffirms FY25 outlook; provides FY26 guidance at Investor Day
  • Macy's (M) beats by $0.26, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; intends to resume share buybacks
  • Macy's (M) comments from Q4 conference call; guides FY25 & Q1 net sales in-line, Q1 adj. EPS below expectations
  • Marvell (MRVL) beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Methode Electronics, Inc. (MEI) Reports Fiscal 2025 Third Quarter Financial Results
  • MongoDB (MDB) beats by $0.62, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
  • Ranpak (PACK) reports Q4 results, beats on revs, provides 2025 outlook
  • Sleep Number (SNBR) beats by $0.02, misses on revs; appoints new CEO and Chairperson; not issuing guidance until new CEO evaluates strategies
  • South Bow Corporation (SOBO) beats by $0.11, misses on revs
  • Stevanato Group S.p.A. (STVN) reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides FY25 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) to update financial targets and introduce long-term growth aspirations at today's investor day
  • Toro (TTC) beats by $0.02, misses on revs; reaffirms FY25 EPS guidance, revs guidance
  • Turning Point Brands (TPB) beats by $0.27, misses on revs
  • United Micro (UMC) reports February revs increased 4.25% yr/yr to ~NT$18.19 bln
  • Veeva Systems (VEEV) beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS above consensus, revs in-line
  • Victoria's Secret (VSCO) beats by $0.30, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY26 revs below consensus
  • Wendy's (WEN) reaffirms FY25 guidance ahead of its 2025 Investor Day; Also announces 2028 growth targets and long-term financial algorithms
  • Wiley (WLY) beats by $0.19, reports revs in-line; guides FY25 EPS in-line, revs in-line
  • Yext (YEXT) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; increases repurchase authorization by $50 mln
  • Zscaler (ZS) beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY25 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
  • Zymeworks (ZYME) misses by $0.21, misses on revs; anticipates the IND submission for ZW251 to be accelerated to mid-2025
• General News
  • House aiming to vote on continuing resolution to fund government through September 30 early next week. Government funding deadline is March 14, according to CBS News
  • White House discussed plan with congressional Republicans to codify Department of Government Efficiency spending cuts into law, according to NBC News
  • President Trump considering agricultural exemptions to Canada & Mexico tariffs, according to Bloomberg
  • China is worried President Trump will win the trade war and that China will become isolated like the former Soviet Union, according to the Wall Street Journal
  • President Trump will issue executive order today to begin process to close the Department of Education, according to the Wall Street Journal
  • President Trump will meet with technology executives next week, according to Bloomberg
  • Turkey lowers interest rates
  • House Speaker Mike Johnson says he expects continuing resolution to fund government through September 30 will pass along party lines - Punchbowl News (Vote is expected Tuesday, will require simple House majority and 60 Senate votes)
  • President Trump says Mexico will not be required to pay tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA agreement until April 2
  • President Trump ties US-Ukraine minerals deal to ceasefire push, pressuring Kyiv, according to Bloomberg
  • President Trump signs executive order that exempts USMCA complaint goods from Canada/Mexico tariffs; 50% of goods from Mexico and 38% of goods from Canada will be exempted until April 2 - CNBC
  • President Trump could extend deadline for TikTok ban, according to Sky News
  • ACELYRIN (SLRN): Trium Capital LLP discloses 5.4% active stake
  • Aimfinity Investment Corp. I (AIMAU) announces extension of the deadline for an initial business combination to March 28, 2025
  • Alibaba (BABA) aiming to introduce new AI model, according to Reuters
  • Amazon (AMZN) GameLift streams empowers developers to stream games to virtually any device
  • American Express (AXP) has entered into an agreement to acquire Center
  • American Water Works (AWK): New Jersey American Water signs an agreement to acquire the water system in South Orange Village for $19.7 million
  • Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) showcases two clinical-stage RNAi-based candidates to treat obesity and metabolic diseases
  • ARS Pharmaceuticals (SPRY) announces FDA Approval of neffy 1 mg (epinephrine nasal spray) for Type I allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis, in pediatric patients weighing 15 to < 30 kilograms
  • Bioceres (BIOX) receives a Notice of Allowance from the United States Patent and Trademark Office for its first event-specific patent covering the HB4 Wheat, IND-ØØ412-7
  • BJ's Wholesale (BJ) plans to open 25-30 clubs over the next two fiscal years, including several clubs set for the Dallas-Fort Worth area starting in early 2026
  • BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) promotes Jennifer Phipps to CFO, effective March 4
  • Cal-Maine Foods (CALM): DOJ will soon investigate alleged egg price fixing, according to Capital Forum
  • Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) reports trading volume for February 2025
  • CME Group (CME) reports BrokerTec sets new single-day volume record with over $1 trillion notional traded
  • CoreCivic (CXW) resumes operations at South Texas Family Residential Center in Texas
  • enCore Energy Corp. (EU) provides initial corporate update
  • Eni S.p.A. (E): KKR (KKR) completes the acquisition of a 25% stake in Enilive’s share capital
  • Franklin Resources (BEN) announces prelim February assets under management of $1.58 trillion, unchanged from January
  • Gevo (GEVO) announced that it will delay the issuance of its fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings release and investor conference call previously scheduled for March 6, 2025
  • Gorilla Technology Group (GRRR) is responding to recent misleading and uninformed online speculation that has caused unnecessary confusion among investors
  • Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sureste (ASR) announces that passenger traffic for February 2024 reached a total of 5.6 million passengers, representing a decrease of 2.6% compared to February 2023
  • HUTCHMED (HCM) Announces that it has Completed Enrollment of a Phase II Registration Study of Fanregratinib (HMPL-453) for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma in China
  • Intuitive Machines (LUNR) will land another spacecraft on the moon today, according to Bloomberg
  • IREN Limited (IREN) provides February 2025 monthly update
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): UK MHRA says "Lazertinib approved for use in combination with amivantamab for the treatment of adults with non-small cell lung cancer"
  • Lithium Americas (LAC) Announces $250 Million Strategic Investment from Orion Resource Partners for Thacker Pass
  • lululemon athletica (LULU) might able to avoid tariffs, but Canada Goose (GOOS) will not, according to WSJ
  • MarketAxess (MKTX) announces trading volume statistics for February 2025
  • Microsoft (MSFT) withdrew from some CoreWeave agreements, according to Financial Times
  • MongoDB (MDB) authorizes up to $200 mln for stock repurchases
  • NVIDIA (NVDA): OpenAI and Oracle (ORCL) want to purchase thousands of NVDA chips for Texas data center, according to Bloomberg
  • ODP Corporation Business Solutions (ODP) announces new landmark partnership to deliver solutions to CoreTrust members
  • Paramount Global (PARA) potentially being blocked from sale to Skydance Media by a Delaware judge, according to Reuters
  • PBF Energy (PBF) provides update on martinez refinery
  • QIAGEN (QGEN) receives U.S. clearance for second QIAstat-Dx mini gastrointestinal panel, expanding U.S. syndromic testing portfolio
  • Silicon Motion (SIMO) showcases storage solutions for AI and Display Interface SoCs at embedded World 2025
  • Smith & Nephew (SNN): New report confirms Smith+Nephew’s OXINIUM Technology is the best performing bearing surface at 20 years for total hip arthroplasty
  • Southern California Edison (EIX) sued by Los Angeles for wildfires, according to the New York Times
  • Stellantis (STLA) will produce more cars in US, according to Reuters
  • Tesla (TSLA): Houston approved tax abatement for Tesla megapack factory, according to Bloomberg
  • Tradeweb Markets (TW) reports February 2025 total trading volume of $50.3 trillion and average daily volume of $2.49 trillion
  • TriNet Group (TNET) completes he sale of its wholly owned subsidiary, TriNet Clarus R+D to Arvo Tech; financial terms were not disclosed
  • Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT) announces that Jim Scholhamer has resigned effective immediately as CEO for personal health reasons; Chairman Clarence Granger will assume the role of interim CEO
  • U.S. Steel (X): President Trump repeats that steel and aluminum tariffs will go into effect on March 12
  • Venture Global (VG) announces plans for a brownfield expansion at its Plaquemines LNG facility south of New Orleans, Louisiana
  • Vertex Pharma's (VRTX) Journavx added to coverage at United Healthcare (UNH)
  • Wal Mart (WMT) asks China suppliers to reduce prices amid tariffs, according to Bloomberg
  • Willdan Group (WLDN) acquires Alternative Power Generation in a stock purchase that closed on March 3; financial terms were not disclosed

• Upgrades:
  • ALX Oncology (ALXO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $3
  • CubeSmart (CUBE) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $47
  • D.R. Horton (DHI) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $164
  • Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $47
  • Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $18
  • KB Home (KBH) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $79
  • Lennar (LEN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $154
  • M/I Homes (MHO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $151
  • Marvell (MRVL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital; tgt $110
  • Meritage (MTH) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $70
  • PulteGroup (PHM) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $100
  • Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $55
  • TRI Pointe Homes (TPH) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Seaport Research Partners; tgt $41
  • Walker & Dunlop (WD) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt $105
  • XPO, Inc. (XPO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Vertical Research; tgt $140
  • Zscaler (ZS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Rosenblatt; tgt $235
• Downgrades:
  • Brown-Forman (BF.B) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $32
  • Caesarstone (CSTE) downgraded to Speculative Buy from Buy at The Benchmark Company
  • Campbell Soup (CPB) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $37
  • Marvell (MRVL) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Summit Insights
  • MongoDB (MDB) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $225
  • VersaBank (VBNK) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at ROTH MKM; tgt lowered to $10.40
• Others:
  • Aduro Clean Technologies (ADUR) initiated with a Buy at D. Boral Capital; tgt $50
  • ImmunityBio (IBRX) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $8
  • Insulet (PODD) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $340
  • Robinhood Markets (HOOD) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $69
  • Tesla (TSLA) named Fresh Pick at Robert W. Baird, tgt lowered to $370 from $440
  • Tourmaline (TRML) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush; tgt $42

• Econ Data (Friday):
  • 8:30 ET: February Nonfarm Payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 159,000; prior 143,000), Nonfarm Private Payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 145,000; prior 111,000), Average Hourly Earnings (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.5%), Unemployment Rate (Briefing.com consensus 4.0%; prior 4.0%), and Average Workweek (Briefing.com consensus 34.2; prior 34.1)
  • 15:00 ET: January Consumer Credit (prior $40.8 bln)
• Earnings:
  • Monday (Mar 3)
    • Pre-Market: AVDL CRC FTRE NABL NOMD PLUG SPHR NOVA OCUL SGRY TGT
    • After-Hours: ADMA CON GCT GTLB SMR SNDX NATL OKTA RPAY WTI
  • Tuesday (Mar 4)
    • Pre-Market: AZO BBY EVGO GENI OLPX ONON PSFE SE
    • After-Hours: AVAV BOX CHPT CRDO CTOS EOLS FLUT JWN ROST SQM
  • Wednesday (Mar 5)
    • Pre-Market: ANF BF.B DIN FL JD REVG RSKD SMRT SOBO SSYS THO
      
    • After-Hours: DSGX KGS LB MRVL MDB SNBR VEEV VSCO YEXT ZS ZYME
  • Thursday (Mar 6)
    • Pre-Market: CRMT BJ BTSG BURL CPB CNQ CBRL KR GMS M MRX PACK STVN TTC TPB WLY
    • After-Hours: ASUR BBAI AVGO COO COST DOMO LOCO FNKO GAP GWRE HPE MLNK IOT SWBI
  • Friday (Mar 7)
    • Pre-Market: AQN GCO
    • After-Hours: None
  General Motors: 5,000 members at GM's Arlington, TX assembly plant join UAW strike