After Hours Report

The S&P 500 closed at a new record high today, enjoying a steady ride higher throughout today's session despite a disappointing ADP Employment Change Report, which showed a loss of 33,000 jobs for private-sector payrolls in June. That news was overshadowed by the president announcing a trade deal with Vietnam that includes a zero tariff rate for U.S. access to Vietnamese markets, solid gains in several mega-cap stocks, and ongoing leadership in the small-cap and mid-cap spaces.

Tesla (TSLA 315.65, +14.94, +4.97%), which reported better-than-feared Q2 delivery numbers; Apple (AAPL 212.44, +4.62, +2.22%), which was upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies; and NVIDIA (NVDA 157.25, +3.95, +2.58%) and Alphabet (GOOG 179.76, +2.85, +1.61%), which were riding AI-related momentum, were the mega-cap leaders.

Their influence underpinned the market cap-weighted S&P 500 (+0.5%), which had a solid outing but nonetheless found itself looking up again at the Russell 2000 (+1.3%) and S&P Midcap 400 Index (+1.0%), which remained beneficiaries of rotational interest.

Like yesterday, today's buying interest was broad-based. Advancers led decliners by a better than 2-to-1 margin at the NYSE and Nasdaq.

The advancers did not include health insurer Centene (CNC 33.78, -22.86, -40.37%), which got pummeled after withdrawing its guidance following its first view analysis of 2025 industry Health Insurance Marketplace data from Wakely. Centene expects an adjusted diluted EPS impact of approximately $2.75 for FY25 based on the analysis. Other health insurance stocks traded lower in sympathy and were the drivers of the health care sector's (-1.0%) underperformance.

The financials sector (-0.1%) also trailed today's action, even though many of the nation's largest banks announced plans to increase their dividend and/or repurchase stock after passing the Federal Reserve's annual stress test.

Today's best-performing sectors were the energy (+1.7%), materials (+1.3%), and information technology (+1.3%) sectors.

Turning back to the ADP report, it was a disappointment, but market participants reserved judgment on its meaning, cognizant that they will get a more comprehensive view of the labor market with the release of the June Employment Situation Report before Thursday's open and that the ADP data doesn't always move in line with the government's data.

Speaking of the government, the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" remained stuck in the House, with some press reports suggesting there is dissension in the GOP ranks over its cost, holding up its passage. There is still a prevailing view that the bill will pass, even though its passage might be delayed beyond the president's wish to have it on his desk for signing by July 4.

As a reminder, the stock market will close at 1:00 p.m. ET Thursday in advance of the Independence Day holiday on Friday.

• S&P 500 +5.9% YTD
• Nasdaq: +5.6% YTD
• DJIA: +4.6% YTD
• S&P 400: +1.6% YTD
• Russell 2000: -0.2% YTD

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX +0.5%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC +1.0%
• Asia: Nikkei -0.6%, Hang Seng +0.6%, Shanghai -0.1%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil +2.02 @ 67.46
• Nat Gas +0.06 @ 3.51
• Gold +9.60 @ 3359.70
• Silver +0.33 @ 36.72
• Copper +0.10 @ 5.20

After-Hours Spotlight:

• 4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT) announces accelerated $FRONT-2 trial; reduces workforce by 25%... FDMT down 0.5%
• AT&T (T) completes sale of remaining 70% stake in DIRECTV to TPG Capital... T unchanged
• Datadaog (DDOG) to join S&P 500 prior to the open on Wednesday, July 9.... DDOG up 8.3%
• Lucid Group (LCID) announces delivery totals for the quarter ended June 30; co produced 3,863 vehicles and delivered 3,309 vehicles... LCID unchanged
• Microchip (MCHP) announces that Steve Sanghi agreed to continue to serve as Chief Executive Officer and President on a permanent basis... MCHP up 0.4%
• Xponential Fitness (XPOF) discloses in filing that the Securities and Exchange Commission concluded its investigation without action relating to its request for certain documents... XPOF up 21.9%

Fair Value for Thursday, July 3:

• S&P 500: 6,276
• Nasdaq 100: 22,849
• DJIA: 44,771

For a full rundown of today's market and after hours developments, see Live In Play

• Earnings/Guidance (Full Earnings Calendar):
  • Apollo Global Management (APO) estimates that alternative net investment income will be approximately $305 mln (pre-tax) for Q2
  • BrightView (BV) lowers FY25 revenue guidance, narrows adjusted EBITDA guidance
  • Centene (CNC) is withdrawing its previous 2025 GAAP and adjusted EPS guidance after analyzing its first view of 2025 industry Health Insurance Marketplace data from Wakely
  • Constellation Brands (STZ) misses by $0.09, misses on revs, beer segment depletions of (2.6)%; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance
  • Greenbrier (GBX) beats by $0.88, beats on revs; reaffirms FY25 revs guidance
  • Rivian Automotive (RIVN) releases Q2 2025 production and delivery figures, reaffirms 2025 delivery guidance, announces funding of $1 bln Volkswagen (VWAGY) investment
  • Stellantis FCA US LLC (STLA) reports total sales of 309,973 vehicles in the second quarter of 2025; total U.S. sales declined 10% yr/yr
  • TechTarget (TTGT) reports preliminary Q2 revenue below consensus; Reaffirms FY25 guidance
  • UMH Properties (UMH) update on the second quarter of 2025 operating results
  • UniFirst (UNF) reports Q3 (May) results, slight miss on revs; raises FY25 EPS guidance, reaffirms FY25 revs guidance
  • Vale S.A. (VALE) updates pellet production guidance
  • Viemed Healthcare (VMD) completed acquisition of Lehan’s Medical Equipment; anticipates increasing previously issued full-year 2025 guidance range to account for the expected contribution
  • Volkswagen AG (VWAGY) reports U.S. Q2 sales decreased 29% YoY to 71,395 units compared to Q2 2024
• General News
  • House Rules Committee votes 7-6 to advance large reconciliation bill to a full House vote; House Speaker Mike Johnson says "we are on the one yard line" and expects House vote today or tomorrow depending on when all members can get back to D.C. (weather issues were impacting flights)
  • President Trump announced deal with Vietnam; says Vietnam will pay 20% tariff and 40% tariff on transshipping; says Vietnam will give U.S. "total access" to markets at zero tariff
  • President Trump says "Israel has agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the 60 Day ceasefire, during which time we will work with all parties to end the war"
  • House Speaker Mike Johnson is trying to address various disagreements among Republicans ahead of House vote on the reconciliation bill, according to Politico
  • President Trump threatened additional tariffs on Japan up to 35%, according to Bloomberg
  • Pentagon halted some shipments of air defense missiles to Ukraine, according to Politico
  • The Trump administration favors the F-47 over the F/A-XX jet, according to Axios
  • FDA's Dr. Vinay Prasad rejected broad uses of two COVID vaccines, according to NY Times
  • US-Mexico asylum ban blocked in court, according to reports
  • Abacus Global Management (ABL): Coventry responds to baseless lawsuit by Abacus Global Management, Inc.
  • Air Lease (AL) provided California Litigation update; anticipates entering into a settlement agreement
  • Alnylam Pharma (ALNY) says OXLUMO now funded across Canada
  • Alpha and Omega Semi (AOSL) reaches settlement with U.S. Department of Commerce for China's Huawei Technologies export case, according to Reuters
  • Alphabet (GOOG): Uber (UBER) backed company Moove is raising funds to expand Waymo fleet, according to Bloomberg
  • Amazon (AMZN) Executive Chair Jeff Bezos sold 3,324,926 shares at $221.11 - $223.55 worth about $736.7 mln pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan
  • AMC Entertainment (AMC) announces that lenders representing more than 80% of its Term Loans due 2029 have joined as a party to the Transaction Support Agreement previously announced
  • American Express (AXP) announces that the Federal Reserve set the company’s preliminary Stress Capital Buffer requirement at 2.5 percent, effective October 1, 2025 through September 30, 2026, based on the results of the 2025 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review process
  • Banco Santander (SAN) provides Fed Stress Test results for Santander Holdings USA
  • Bank of America (BAC) comments on stress test results; plans to increase quarterly dividend 8% to $0.28/share
  • Bank of Hawaii (BOH) names Bradley Satenberg as Vice Chair and CFO
  • Bank of Marin (BMRC) sold a book value of $186 mln of available-for-sale securities to strategically reposition its balance sheet
  • Baxter (BAX): FDA is aware that BAX issued letter to affected customers
  • Baxter (BAX): FDA provides update on infusion pump software issue from Baxter
  • BCE Inc (BCE) also confirms concluded sale of its minority stake in Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment; expects to direct proceeds to support its acquisition of Ziply Fiber
  • BNY Mellon (BK) increases quarterly cash dividend 13% to $0.53/share from $0.47/share
  • BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) and its subsidiary Eidos Therapeutics entered into a Royalty Interest Purchase and Sale Agreement with Acoramidis Royalty
  • Bunge (BG) announces the successful closing of its previously announced merger with Viterra Limited, marking the creation of a premier global agribusiness solutions company for food, feed and fuel
  • Capital One (COF) announces the company's preliminary Stress Capital Buffer Requirement is 4.5%, effective October 1, 2025
  • CARGO Therapeutics (CRGX) provides update on suspended development efforts
  • Charles Schwab (SCHW) provides positive Fed Stress Test results
  • Cipher Mining (CIFR) announces that Phase I of Black Pearl is now delivering ~3.4 EH/s of self-mining capacity, exceeding company’s prior guidance of 2.5 EH/s for Q2
  • Citigroup (C) confirmed it completed the Federal Reserve Board’s 2025 annual supervisory stress test process
  • Definitive Healthcare (DH) agreed with Kate Shamsuddin Jensen that the Chief Operating Officer position that she held would be eliminated
  • DuPont (DD): Advent Int'l and Platinum Equity vie for DuPont's Kevlar and Nomex in $2 bln asset sale, according to FT
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) announces the Federal Reserve released results of its 2025 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review stress test; Increases dividend
  • Google (GOOG, GOOGL) will have to pay $314 mln for a cellular data lawsuit, according to Reuters
  • Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH) is conducting a search for qualified candidates to fill the two vacancies that will result from departures
  • IBM (IBM) announces that Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY) will implement the AI-powered solution IBM Concert, enabling intelligent automation in patch management and the orchestration of security-related activities
  • Instil Bio (TIL) announced the clearance of an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for AXN-2510 by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration
  • Intel (INTC) executive considers change to contract manufacturing business, according to Reuters
  • Jack In The Box's (JACK) Board of Directors unanimously adopted a limited-duration stockholder rights plan, which was adopted in response to the accumulation of the company’s stock by Biglari Capital Corp
  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reports Dodd-Frank Act stress test results; To boost dividend to $1.50/share from $1.40/share and approves $50 bln share buyback
  • Lockheed Martin (LMT) awarded a Missile Defense Agency contract with a ceiling of $2.97 bln
  • M&T Bank (MTB) announces preliminary stress capital buffer; Federal Reserve Board determined the company's preliminary stress capital buffer, under the current rules, is 2.7%, effective October 1, 2025
  • Main Street Capital (MAIN) announces follow-on portfolio investment
  • Marvell (MRVL): Microsoft's (MSFT) scaled-back AI chip plans pose revenue headwinds for Marvell, according to The Information
  • Merck (MRK): FDA grants priority review for WINREVAIR to Update label based on results from ZENITH trial
  • Microsoft (MSFT) amended the Company’s Bylaws, effective July 1, 2025
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) increases quarterly cash dividend to $1.00/share from $0.93/share and authorizes a renewed $20 billion multi-year common equity share repurchase program
  • Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) announces partnership with Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation to start production and continue development of 200mm GaN-on-silicon technology
  • Netflix (NFLX) mulling introduction of music shows and interviews, according to WSJ
  • Nissan Motor (NSANY) recalls is recalling certain 2021-2024 Rogue, 2019-2020 Altima, 2019-2022 Infiniti QX50, and 2022 Infiniti QX55 vehicles
  • Northern Trust (NTRS) announces 2025 stress capital buffer and intent to increase quarterly common stock dividend by 7%
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO) and WeightWatchers expand collaboration to improve medication access through trusted, Holistic Model of Care
  • Organon (OGN) announces that the Phase 2 ELENA proof-of-concept study evaluating the investigational candidate OG-6219 in endometriosis-related pain did not meet its primary efficacy endpoint
  • Oshkosh Defense (OSK) has received orders from the U.S. Army valued at $167 mln for 225 trucks and 54 trailers under the Family of Heavy Tactical Vehicles contract
  • Paramount (PARA) to pay $16 mln to settle lawsuit with President Trump, according to NY Times
  • Perrigo (PRGO) announces strategic organizational update to drive sustainable growth and performance
  • PNC (PNC) announces Stress Capital Buffer (SCB) and increase to dividend
  • Rogers Comms (RCI) closed transaction to acquire BCE's 37.5% stake in Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment for C$4.7 bln (now the largest owner with a 75% interest)
  • Seritage Growth Properties (SRG) Board approved the appointment of Mr. Metz as CEO on a non-interim basis, effective as of July 1, 2025
  • Snap (SNAP) announced its community in India has surged to over 250 million monthly active users
  • State Street (STT) announces planned 11% dividend increase to $0.84/share and preliminary Stress Capital Buffer Requirement
  • Surmodics (SRDX) provides update to unauthorized access to certain of its information technology
  • Tesla (TSLA) China produced EVs see first sales increase in 9 months, according to Reuters
  • The Shyft Group (SHYF) common stock has been delisted from the NASDAQ Global Select Market; Aebi Schmidt Group expected to begin trading on a "regular-way" basis under the ticker symbol "AEBI" today
  • Tonix Pharma (TNXP) announces peer-reviewed publication in cancer cell journal highlighting positive preclinical data of mTNX-1700 in Gastric Cancer Animal Models
  • Truist (TFC) announces planned capital deployment and stress capital buffer requirement following release of 2025 CCAR results; Plans to maintain current quarterly dividend of $0.52/share and its $5.0 bln share repurchase program remains active
  • U.S. Bancorp (USB) comments on Dodd-Frank Act stress test results
  • Wells Fargo (WFC) completed the 2025 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) stress test process; Intends to raise dividend by 12.5% to $0.45/share

• Upgrades:
  • Altria Group (MO) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS, tgt $59
  • Apple (AAPL) upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies, tgt $188.32
  • Energy Fuels (UUUU) upgraded to Buy from Speculative Buy at Canaccord
  • National Health Investors (NHI) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist, tgt $77
  • Ross Stores (ROST) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies, tgt $150
  • Visteon (VC) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, tgt $123
  • WisdomTree (WT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Northcoast, tgt $15
• Downgrades:
  • Adobe (ADBE) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn, tgt $280
  • Aptiv (APTV) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
  • Arcos Dorados (ARCO) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $8.80
  • CarGurus (CARG) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Citizens JMP
  • Centene (CNC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, tgt $45
  • Centene (CNC) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $48
  • Cousins Properties (CUZ) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist, tgt $31
  • Highwoods Properties (HIW) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist, tgt $32
  • Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
  • KBR (KBR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, tgt $54
  • KeyCorp (KEY) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird, tgt $18
  • Quanta Services (PWR) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Northland, tgt $354
  • Stellantis (STLA) downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research
• Others:
  • Amcor (AMCR) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies, tgt $12
  • Autoliv (ALV) assumed with a Buy at Jefferies, tgt $140
  • Aveanna (AVAH) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $5.50
  • Block (XYZ) initiated with a Buy at Compass Point, tgt $80
  • Camtek (CAMT) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer, tgt $100
  • Cava Group (CAVA) initiated with an Overweight at KeyBanc, tgt $100
  • Chime (CHYM) initiated with a Neutral at Compass Point, tgt $33
  • Crocs (CROX) initiated with a Sell at Goldman, tgt $88
  • Deckers Outdoor (DECK) initiated with a Sell at Goldman, tgt $90
  • DoubleDown (DDI) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $20
  • Federal Realty (FRT) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays, tgt $106
  • IonQ (IONQ) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $45
  • Jabil (JBL) resumed with a Buy at Stifel, tgt $245
  • Kimco Realty (KIM) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays, tgt $25
  • Oscar Health (OSCR) initiated with an Underweight at Barclays, tgt $17
  • Phillips Edison (PECO) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $37
  • Primo Brands (PRMB) initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $38
  • Quantum Computing (QUBT) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $15
  • D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $20
  • Regency Centers (REG) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $77
  • Rigetti Computing (RGTI) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $15
  • Simon Property (SPG) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $170
  • Tanger (SKT) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $33
  • Under Armour (UAA) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $7
  • Vodafone (VOD) resumed with an Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
  • Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $26

• Econ Data (Thursday):
  • 08:30 ET: June nonfarm payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 120K; prior 139K); nonfarm private payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 123K; prior 140K); unemployment rate (Briefing.com consensus 4.2%; prior 4.2%); avg. hourly earnings (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.4%), and average workweek (Briefing.com consensus 34.3; prior 34.3)
  • 08:30 ET: Initial jobless claims (Briefing.com consensus 240K; prior 236K) and continuing jobless claims (prior 1974K)
  • 08:30 ET: May Trade Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$70.5B; prior -$61.6B)
  • 09:45 ET: June S&P Global US Services PMI - Final (prior 53.7%)
  • 10:00 ET: June ISM Services PMI (Briefing.com consensus 50.3%; prior 49.9%)
  • 10:00 ET; May Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus 7.9%; prior -3.7%)
  • 10:30 ET: EIA Natural Gas Inventories (prior +96 bcf)
• Earnings:
  • Monday (June 30)
    • Pre-Market: None
    • After-Hours: PRGS
    Tuesday (July 1)
    • Pre-Market:  MSM
    • After-Hours:  STZ, GBX
      
  • Wednesday (July 2)
    • Pre-Market:  UNF
      
    • After-Hours:  None
  • Thursday (July 3)
    • Pre-Market:  None
    • After-Hours:  None
  • Friday (July 4)
    • Market closed for Independence Day
  General Motors: 5,000 members at GM's Arlington, TX assembly plant join UAW strike