January Retail Sales
Updated 12-Feb-07 09:54 ET
Highlights
- Briefing.com Forecast: 0.5%, 0.6% ex-autos
- Market Consensus: 0.3%, 0.4% ex-autos
Key Factors
- Post holiday discounting plays heavily in to January volatility. Jan '06 jumped 3.0%, Jan '05 fell -0.4%.
- Flat auto sales and steady gasoline prices take away the known volatility.
- Building materials expected to show the 9th decline in 10 months. Furniture/electronics surged over holidays, small rise expected.
- Nondurable goods expected to be led by strong merchandise sales.
- Total less gas and autos expected at 0.6% from the 11 month high of 0.7% in December.
Big Picture
- Retail sales are slowing under the weight of higher interest rates as lower gas prices provided a late 2006 boost. Strong retail sales growth had been fueled by low interest rates, vehicle discounting and mortgage refinancing as those forces faded in late 2005. Despite the improved employment and income growth the Fed tightening and high energy prices have had a deflating effect on consumer spending and big ticket durable goods purchases particularly. Income growth provides support and is the best read on the future sales pace.
| Category |
Jan |
Dec |
Nov |
Oct |
Sep |
| Retail Sales |
0.5% E |
0.9 |
0.6 |
-0.2 |
-0.6 |
| Excluding Autos |
0.6% E |
1.0 |
0.7 |
-0.5 |
-1.0 |
| Durable goods |
|
|
|
|
|
| Building Materials |
|
-1.1 |
-0.5 |
-0.9 |
-1.7 |
| Autos/parts |
|
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
| Furniture |
|
0.7 |
0.1 |
-0.7 |
0.3 |
| Nondurable goods |
|
|
|
|
|
| General Merchandise |
|
0.9 |
0.3 |
-0.2 |
0.7 |
| Food |
|
0.7 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
-0.5 |
| Gasoline stations |
|
3.8 |
2.9 |
-4.5 |
-9.8 |
| Apparel |
|
0.6 |
-0.7 |
-1.7 |
2.9 |
| Food Services/bars |
|
2.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
| e*retailing/non-store |
|
0.3 |
1.1 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
