May Retail Sales
Updated 11-Jun-09 09:03 ET
Highlights
- The May retail sales numbers were about as expected, posting a moderate increase of 0.5% for both total sales and excluding autos.
- Gasoline sales, which rose 3.6%, helped boost the numbers. It is somewhat surprising that auto sales did not add more to the increase as unit auto sales were up solidly in the month.
- Excluding the gasoline sales component, retail sales were up 0.2%.
Key Factors
- The 0.5% May gain follows a 0.2% drop in April, reflecting a stabilization in the trend in consumer spending. It would be very premature, however, to expect an uptrend in retail sales over the months ahead given declining payrolls and weakening wage gains.
- The data overall present few major surprises relative to what is built into market expectations for the economy.
Big Picture
- Retail sales fell off dramatically starting in September. That was when the financial markets fell apart and the news became apocalyptic. Auto sales also collapsed as the news of potential auto company bankruptcies dominated headlines. Retail sales are likely to remain weak for quite a while given the current trends in employment, and the negative wealth impact for depressed prices for homes and stocks.
| Category |
MAY |
APR |
MAR |
FEB |
JAN |
| Retail Sales |
0.5% |
-0.2% |
-1.2% |
0.4% |
1.7% |
| Excluding Autos |
0.5% |
-0.2% |
-1.1% |
1.1% |
1.4% |
| Durable goods |
|
|
|
|
|
| Building Materials |
1.3% |
-0.6% |
-0.6% |
-0.7% |
-0.9% |
| Autos/parts |
0.5% |
-0.4% |
-2.1% |
-2.7% |
2.7% |
| Furniture |
-0.4% |
-1.1% |
-2.2% |
0.1% |
-1.0% |
| Nondurable goods |
|
|
|
|
|
| General Merchandise |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
-0.8% |
0.9% |
1.3% |
| Food |
0.4% |
-0.1% |
0.4% |
-0.6% |
1.6% |
| Gasoline stations |
3.6% |
-0.8% |
-2.4% |
3.9% |
2.9% |
| Clothing |
0.4% |
-0.7% |
-3.2% |
2.9% |
4.6% |
| e*retailing/non-store |
-0.4% |
-0.1% |
-0.9% |
-0.2% |
1.5% |
