Initial Claims for the Week Ended Nov 15
Updated 17-Nov-08 08:26 ET
Highlights
- New claims for unemployment are at high levels and the outlook is poor. There are now daily annoucements of job cuts as firms go into defensive mode. Weekly levels of filings can fluctuate for a variety of reasons including weather and seasonal factors in the computations. However, there is no reason to expect that the trend will change due to an improvement in the labor market over the near term.
- Claims may well hold above 475,000 or even 500,000 per week for the next few months.
Key Factors
Big Picture
- New claims for unemployment have moved into recessionary levels. This does not auger well for fourth quarter payrolls or GDP. Claims had been running at high, but not recessionary levels, until recently. The increase in claims, in our opinion, is due as much to the widely broadcast economic crisis and the liquidity problems on Wall Street as to traditional macroeconomic trends. That is, apart from the liqudity crisis, claims would have held at near 400,000 based on overall macroeconomic trends. Now, however, the panic and fear on Wall Street is spreading to main street.
| Category |
Nov 8 |
Nov 1 |
Oct 25 |
Oct 18 |
Oct 11 |
| Initial Claims |
516K |
484 |
485 |
479 |
463 |
| 4-Wk Moving Avg |
491K |
477.75 |
477 |
480.5 |
484.75 |
| Continued Benefits |
|
3.897M |
3.832 |
3.721 |
3.727 |
| 4-Wk Moving Avg |
|
3.794M |
3.751 |
3.711 |
3.681 |
