EmailS&P futures suggest a modest up open. The seasonal trends can never be discounted.
The Japanese and Chinese stock markets were up almost 3% Tuesday and Wednesday (since the US markets closed Monday). Apart from that there is no bullish news. Mastercard estimated total (not just credit card) holiday spending at a meager 0.7% gain from last year. That is a very poor number as it is nominal (not adjusted for inflation) and would make 2012 the worst holiday retail season since 2008.
The fiscal cliff negotiations have understandably been at a standstill since Monday because of Christmas, but the Wall Street Journal is reporting that aides to both parties expect serious discussions later this week. Perhaps.
The Case-Shiller home price index is due at 9:00 ET.
The action today through Friday will be heavily influenced by news on the fiscal cliff negotiations. Underlying that will be support from the traditional year-end bullish bias. At least for today, it looks like the seasonal support is enough to boost the stock market given the uncertain outlook for the budget negotiations.
Dick Green
Chairman, Briefing.com
