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HOME > Our View >Page One >Politics Can Wait
Page One Archive
Last Update: 09-Sep-11 09:02 ET
Politics Can Wait

After the market closed a disappointing session yesterday, it was announced that a credible U.S. terror threat has been detected.  Coincidentally, Congress is now back in session.

The terror threat, however, relates specifically to homeland security and the heightened potential for terrorist action as the nation marks the 10-year anniversary of 9/11. 

Nonetheless, our political process these days remains a threat to the market, especially after President Obama unveiled a $447 bln job growth proposal before a joint session of Congress.  The components of that speech were largely as expected, although the price for growth was higher than the $300 bln that had been mentioned in media reports leading up to the speech.

The president, among other things, called for payroll tax cuts for employees and employers; he proposed a tax credit for businesses that hire long-term unemployed workers; he requested more spending for infrastructure projects and state and local aid; and he sought to help spur mortgage refinancing. 

Everything the president said sounded on point, but the overriding point for the market is that none of this means anything unless Congress says it does.  The upside is that post-speech remarks from congressional leaders haven't sounded totally closed-minded.  The downside is that they haven't sounded totally open-minded either.

The rub for most in Congress, and understandably so, is that the president hasn't revealed yet how he will pay for what is now being called "The American Jobs Act."  He has indicated that everything can be covered without adding to the deficit and has noted that funding specifics will be detailed in a formal way early next week.

The proof is in the pudding, so we expect politicians on both sides of the aisle will soon have their chance to be more political with their views.  Most we suspect at least recognize that doing so today would be distasteful ahead of the 9/11 anniversary.  If there is ever a day when Main Street doesn't want to hear what divides us as a nation, that is it.

To be sure, 9/11/01 was an utterly sad day.  The anniversary of 9/11, though, is a poignant reminder of how great our nation can be when we work together to rebuild broken structures, broken spirits, and broken dreams.

Hopefully, the spirit of unity will carry over next week in Washington, but we have our doubts.

It appears that the market does too.  The S&P futures have not been moved by the jobs speech, because it has doubts about Congress functioning in a conciliatory manner.  In turn, the market has its doubts about the EU's handling of the sovereign debt crisis.

G7 finance ministers are meeting this weekend amid a blur of headlines suggesting Greece is on shaky ground in its attempt to meet fiscal reform goals, and in the face of reports discussing political infighting in member countries on the need to help Greece and other fiscal derelicts.

Separate items holding the market back at this juncture include lowered Q3 sales and earnings guidance from Texas Instruments (TXN) that was attributed to macroeconomic issues and an August same-store sales report from McDonald's (MCD) that was good (+3.5% on global comps) but not good enough to meet higher expectations (+4.7%).

At the moment, the cash market is indicated to open down about 0.5%.

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

Patrick J. O'Hare is Chief Market Analyst for Briefing Research, Briefing.com's institutional research service. To request a free trial, please email researchsales@briefing.com.

After the market closed a disappointing session yesterday, it was announced that a credible U.S. terror threat has been detected. Coincidentally,
 
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