EmailThe S&P 500 needs a gain today of just over 0.9% to close the week in positive territory. It is not out of the question, but with the S&P futures 0.5% below fair value, something special on this last day of the quarter is going to be needed to make it happen.
As far as we know, the Fed isn't going to announce that it will buy stocks directly, so we can rule that out of the "special" category.
A fiscal cliff compromise today seems as likely as the Cleveland Browns making it to the Super Bowl this year, so there will be nothing "special" on that front.
There isn't going to be some great, geopolitical catharsis between Iran and Israel, so don't expect a "special" moment out of the Middle East.
France announced its 2013 budget, including a 75% tax for earnings over 1 mln euros. That is "special," but not in a good way. The CAC 40 is down 1.6%.
Nike (NKE), Research In Motion (RIMM), and Walgreens (WAG) all reported earnings that were well ahead of consensus expectations. Nike beat by 11 cents; RIMM beat by 19 cents; and Walgreens beat by 5 cents. That sounds special at first blush until one learns year-over-year earnings for each of those companies (RIMM posted a sizable loss) were down sharply. Nothing too "special" about that.
The results of Spain's bank audit are expected to be released today. Reports indicate the beleaguered banks will probably need about 60 bln euros to be recapitalized. That's not exactly a Wal-Mart special.
Personal income rose 0.1% in August (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%), but real disposable income fell 0.3%. Special? No.
Personal spending increased 0.5% in August, but that was predominantly from purchases of nondurable goods (read: higher gas prices). Real PCE was up just 0.1%. The personal savings rate, meanwhile, fell to 3.7% from 4.1%, suggesting consumers were spending from savings out of necessity given the weak income growth. That is far from a special development.
The S&P futures clipped their lows of the morning in the wake of the income and spending report.
While the wait for something "special" today continues, one can find some comfort in the thought that it has been a special quarter in terms of the market's performance. Entering today, the S&P 500 is up 6.2% since the end of June.
