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HOME > Our View >Page One >More Good than Harm in...
Page One Archive
Last Update: 09-Feb-12 09:02 ET
More Good than Harm in Headlines

The equity market kept on keeping on Wednesday, ending the session with a modest 0.2% gain that left the S&P 500 a hair below 1350.  Today, the market is indicated to open slightly higher as it digests a batch of news from around the world.

The headline of note at the moment comes courtesy of The Financial Times, which is reporting Greek leaders have reached an agreement on an austerity deal.  The S&P futures were slightly underwater prior to this headline hitting the wires, but instinctively ticked higher on the news.

There hasn't been a rush to buy the headline, though, because an official report has yet to be seen.  In addition, we averred yesterday that the equity market has already been buying the rumor of a debt swap/austerity deal, so the news of an actual deal might not be as impactful as some would expect.  In fact, we suggested it could ultimately be met with a sell-the-news response.

It will be good to put this particular incident of headline hysteria behind the market, assuming of course the deal is officially confirmed by Greek leaders and proper designates from the creditor troika. 

In other developments, a litany of U.S. companies have reported their quarterly earnings results since yesterday's close.  Cisco (CSCO) is the headliner. 

The networking giant topped the Capital IQ consensus estimate by $0.04 and provided in-line guidance for its fiscal third quarter.  That guidance apparently was deemed to be "conservative" in light of the 13% rally in Cisco's stock since the start of the year.  Shares of CSCO are indicated 1.0% lower in premarket action.

Visa (V), PepsiCo (PEP), News Corp. (NWSA), Prudential (PRU), Whole Foods Markets (WFM) and Groupon (GRPN) were other luminaries on the reporting list.  Most of those reports were taken in stride, yet Groupon is getting a taste itself of the discount factor, as its shares are trading 11% lower in premarket after its report failed to live up to high expectations.

Fortunately, the weekly initial claims report did not fall under that umbrella.  Once again, it proved to be better than expected, with claims for the week ending February 4 declining by 15,000 to 358,000 (Briefing.com consensus 370,000).  That dropped the four-week moving average to 366,250 -- the lowest level since April 2008 -- from 377,250 in the prior week.

The initial claims trend remains an encouraging indicator for the U.S. economic outlook and remains consistent with nonfarm payroll gains in excess of 200,000.

Continuing claims for the week ending January 28 increased by 64,000 to 3.515 mln (Briefing.com consensus 3.475 mln).  Still, the four-week moving average for continuing claims decreased by 33,000 to 3.498 mln.  The trend in this series should override the weekly figure for continuing claims.

Looking elsewhere, China's CPI rate for January was higher than expected at 4.5%.  Economists were looking for a number closer to 4.0%; however, the Chinese market handled the negative surprise well on the basis that it was an aberrant pickup in inflation due to the timing of the Chinese New Year.

The Bank of England, meanwhile, is not overly concerned about inflation.  In conjunction with an announcement that it would leave its key lending rate unchanged at 0.50%, the Bank of England also said it will be boosting its asset purchase program by GBP 50 bln to GBP 325 bln.

The European Central Bank for its part left its key lending rate unchanged at 1.00%.  ECB President Draghi is conducting a press conference at the moment, saying he thinks there are some stabilization signs of economic activity but that he continues to see high uncertainty and downside risk.

And there you have it.  A lot to chew on today and not enough time before the opening bell to expound on it properly.

Even so, the message is that more good than harm has been done with today's headlines, which also include a report that there has been a $26 bln foreclosure relief settlement between the states and five lenders.  

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

Patrick J. O'Hare is Chief Market Analyst for Briefing Research, Briefing.com's institutional research service. To request a free trial, please email researchsales@briefing.com.

The equity market kept on keeping on Wednesday, ending the session with a modest 0.2% gain that left the S&P 500 a hair below 1350. Today, the
 
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