EmailThanksgiving is upon us, yet it feels more like Groundhog Day the movie. To wit, we keep waking up to the same storylines.
There is the fiscal cliff, the need to compromise, and as of yet no compromise.
There is the Greek aid negotiations, the need to compromise, and as of yet no compromise.
There is the armed conflict between Israel and Hamas, the need to reach a ceasefire, and as of yet no ceasefire.
There is Japan reporting weak trade figures (exports down 6.5% in October and imports down 1.6%), and the continuing belief that bad news is good news because it will invite more monetary stimulus.
There is the report on weekly initial claims, which have been bounded between 350,000 and 400,000 since last October with a few aberrant exceptions, showing claims for the week ending November 17 dropped by 41,000 to 410,000. Due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy, this week's report is an aberrant exception to the norm.
We could stretch to paint the picture of more of the same, but we're getting sidetracked now with thoughts of Thanksgiving Day football where the Detroit Lions and the Dallas Cowboys -- surprise, surprise -- will be the featured home teams like they are every year.
So, we can brief today because the storylines are the same.
The S&P futures are trading slightly above fair value, suggesting the cash market could get off to a slightly higher start.
As it so happens, the day before and after Thanksgiving combined have seen only 12 losses in the last 59 years according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.
Undoubtedly, a favorable Thanksgiving trade is a storyline most investors won't mind being repeated this year.
Happy Thanksgiving!
