EmailElection day has finally arrived. The polls are open. Votes are being cast.
The presidential race is considered too close to call. That probably means the nation is in store for a long night of political intrigue that could stretch into the wee hours of Wednesday morning.
Let's hope, however, that by this time tomorrow we at least know who has been elected president. There is a risk that we won't and that won't be a good thing.
Markets around the globe are casting a watchful eye on the U.S., mindful that the outcome of the general election will help dictate the course of compromise to the fiscal cliff. That is, if we get a compromise.
As we discussed in this week's Big Picture column, the risk of a compromise not being reached by January 1 will be magnified, not minimized, by a very close presidential election since a tightly contested outcome is certain to generate some bitter political feelings within the losing candidate's party.
Arguably, a convincing win in the presidential election would do more to advance the prospect of a fiscal cliff compromise than a very close outcome would.
While the winning party is unlikely to have a mandate, members of the losing party might see (emphasis on the word might) a convincing win in the presidential election as a popular message that speaks to the desired course of fiscal compromise.
That is speculation on our part, yet a contested election is certain to lower the prospect of any deal being reached before January 1.
Will we know tomorrow morning who is going to be occupying the Oval Office for the next four years? That is the question that will be hanging over the market today.
At the moment, the S&P futures are pointing to a modestly higher open for stocks.
There isn't any distinct catalyst for the positive bias other than perhaps the recognition that stocks battled back from losses yesterday.
CVS Caremark (CVS) reported better-than-expected earnings, as did Tidewater (TDW) and Emerson (EMR). Earnings news, however, is taking a backseat to the election today.
With that, we will leave readers with one closing thought. Actually, it is an election indicator -- and we are not talking about the Washington Redskins indicator.
According to the Halloween mask sales indicator (i.e. an indicator that predicts the election winner based on the most masks of the political figure sold), Richard Nixon wins today in a posthumous landslide.
