You must subscribe to access archives older
than one year.
Take a free trial of Briefing In Play® now.
Subscribe Here
TERMS OF USE

The Briefing.com RSS (really simple syndication) service is a method by which we offer story headline feeds in XML format to readers of the Briefing.com web site who use RSS aggregators. By using Briefing.com’s RSS service you agree to be bound by these Terms of Use. If you do not agree to the terms and conditions contained in these Terms of Use, we do not consent to provide you with an RSS feed and you should not make use of Briefing.com’s RSS service. The use of the RSS service is also subject to the terms and conditions of the Briefing.com Reader Agreement which governs the use of Briefing.com's entire web site (www.briefing.com) including all information services. These Terms of Use and the Briefing.com Reader Agreement may be changed by Briefing.com at any time without notice.

Use of RSS Feeds:
The Briefing.com RSS service is provided free of charge for use by individuals, as long as the feeds are used for such individual’s personal, non-commercial use. Any other uses, including without limitation the incorporation of advertising into or the placement of advertising associated with or targeted towards the RSS Content, are strictly prohibited. You are required to use the RSS feeds as provided by Briefing.com and you may not edit or modify the text, content or links supplied by Briefing.com. To acquire more extensive licensing rights to Briefing.com content please review this page.

Link to Content Pages:
The RSS service may be used only with those platforms from which a functional link is made available that, when accessed, takes the viewer directly to the display of the full article on the Briefing.com web site. You may not display the RSS content in a manner that does not permit successful linking to, redirection to or delivery of the applicable Briefing.com web site page. You may not insert any intermediate page, “splash” page or any other content between the RSS link and the applicable Briefing.com web site page.

Ownership/Attribution:
Briefing.com retains all ownership and other rights in the RSS content, and any and all Briefing.com logos and trademarks used in connection with the RSS service. You are required to provide appropriate attribution to the Briefing.com web site in connection with your use of the RSS feeds. If you provide this attribution using a graphic we require you to use the Briefing.com web site logo that we have incorporated into the Briefing.com RSS feed.

Right to Discontinue Feeds:
Briefing.com reserves the right to discontinue providing any or all of the RSS feeds at any time and to require you to cease displaying, distributing or otherwise using any or all of the RSS feeds for any reason including, without limitation, your violation of any provision of these Terms of Use or the terms and conditions of the Briefing.com Reader Agreement. Briefing.com assumes no liability for any of your activities in connection with the RSS feeds or for your use of the RSS feeds in connection with your web site.

Briefing.com
Subscribers Log In
 
  • HOME
  • OUR VIEW
    • Page One
    • The Big Picture
    • Ahead of the Curve
  • ANALYSIS
    • Premium Analysis
    • Story Stocks
  • MARKETS
    • Stock Market Update
    • Bond Market Update
    • Market Internals
    • After Hours Report
    • Weekly Wrap
  • CALENDARS
    • Upgrades/Downgrades
    • Economic
    • Stock Splits
    • IPO
    • Earnings
    • Conference Calls
    • Earnings Guidance
  • EMAILS
    • Edit My Profile
  • LEARNING CENTER
    • About Briefing.com
    • Ask An Analyst
    • Analysis
    • General Concepts
    • Strategies
    • Resources
    • Video
  • COMMUNITY
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • LinkedIn
    • YouTube
    • RSS
  • SEARCH
Login | EmailEmail |
HOME > Learning Center >General Concepts >Dealing with ...
General Concepts
Dealing with Volatility

The extreme stock market volatility of recent months has been difficult for long-term investors. It would be a mistake, however, to overreact. Volatility in itself does not mean a downtrend in the market. The volatility will ease, and can even provide investment opportunities.

The VIX

The most widely watched measure of stock market volatility is the VIX index.

It is commonly called "the fear index" but actually is a mathematical calculation of expected changes in the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days. The equation is based on the call and put option premiums for S&P 500 contracts, measuring the price traders are willing to pay for the opportunity to benefit from a potential swing in the market in either direction.

Although call options premiums are in the calculation just as much as put premiums, it is the puts that drive the index. This is because traders are more willing to pay high prices to bet on a quick plunge in the stock market than they are on a sharp spike upward.

The VIX thus tends to rise when fears of a market downturn increase, which typically happens after a market decline.

Below is a chart of the VIX over the past two years.

The first spike in the VIX index on the chart reflects a large drop in the stock market last summer. The VIX spiked well over 30 on concerns that financial turmoil in Europe would cause additional declines in the U.S. stock market.

The chart also shows the VIX index rising sharply in August of this year as the stock market plunged again this summer on similar fears of contagion from the ongoing European debt drama.

The VIX then declined last fall and winter as the stock market rallied, and traders were no longer willing to pay huge premiums for put options. The risks and fears ebbed.

Trading the VIX and Stock Options

In times of extreme market volatility, there are plenty of pundits ready to suggest that investors protect positions with options -- typically purchasing put options against long-term positions. Just turn on the TV a day after a sharp market decline, and you'll frequently hear that advice.

This, in your author's opinion, is almost always poor strategy.

Whenever market volatility increases after a sharp decline in the market, the "fear index" will spike. But that is a backward-looking consideration.

The index has spiked because the option premiums on puts have already risen dramatically. This is after the market has already fallen. To buy protective puts at that time will involve exorbitant costs. They will prove worthwhile only if the market (or individual stock against which the put was purchased) plunges even further -- much further.

Whenever an investor buys a put or a call option, the position doesn't pay just because the direction of the market is accurately predicted, but only if the market moves substantially in that direction. It usually doesn't work.

Patience

Volatility also must not be confused with bear market fundamentals.

Granted, bear markets are associated with high levels of volatility and a high VIX reading. Nevertheless, a high level of volatility in itself does not mean a bear market, and doesn't have to mean a declining portfolio value.

There have been countless articles about how investors should deal with the recent high level of market volatility. There was a point this past summer when there was considerable talk about a "bear market" because the S&P had fallen approximately 20% from its recent highs and how investors should adapt to the changing environment.

In fact, the best advice was simply: stick to your long-term investment plan.

Here are the facts on the change in the S&P 500 from recent years based on the Friday, November 4, 2011, close of 1253.23:

Change from one-year ago: +2.6%

Change from two-years ago: +19.8%

Change from three-years ago: +24.6%

The best strategy has been to take positions and to hold them, even through the gut-wrenching ups and downs.

Long-term Fundamentals

The important issue in investing is to develop a strategy based on long-term fundamentals and to stick with that strategy.

To react to every headline out of Europe, or every (publicity-seeking) pronouncement that the U.S. economy has entered a double-dip recession because of a couple of bad economic numbers, will not only drive an investor crazy, but will also probably lead to some very poor decisions.

The current long-term fundamentals are reasonably good.

Most importantly, stocks hold significant relative value (Please see our February 28, 2011 article). The earnings yield on the S&P 500 index is 5.59%, based on almost complete third quarter earnings data.

Earnings growth in the third quarter was 17%. Earnings growth is expected to be 11% in 2012.

The U.S. economy continues to slog along with decent but subpar growth. Real GDP should rise 2% to 3% in 2012.

And the alternative to the S&P dividend yield of 2.00% with rising dividends is a locked-in meager 2.03% on a 10-year government note. Stocks have excellent relative value.

Safety in Stocks. Yes, Safety.

There is always risk in owning stocks. Stock prices can certainly go down. Yet, there is a great deal of variability in risk within the stock market.

This column in recent years advocated for investments in high-quality, high-dividend yield, multinational companies. Many of these stocks are actually low risk.

A list of such stocks might include 3M, Abbot Labs, Coca-Cola, Exxon, Johnson & Johnson, McDonald's, Procter & Gamble, and Wal-Mart (as discussed in our September 12 Big Picture column).

A number of these stocks actually sport credit ratings of AAA, higher than the U.S. government. Most provide a greater yield than the 10-year Treasury note. All have rising profits, and all have increased their dividend every year for 29 to 53 years.

Many of these companies have exposure to Europe and earnings growth will undoubtedly be constrained for years by what could be a stagnant European economy. That is well recognized, however, and a great deal of the risk is already priced in the stocks.

Perhaps most relevant for those concerned with volatility, these stocks are also far more stable than the market in general. Every one of these stocks will get caught in a downdraft affecting the overall market, but far less so than most other stocks. And, when Johnson & Johnson gets pulled down by overall volatility, it often simply represents another excellent entry point for long-term investors.

What It All Means

The recent market turmoil doesn't have to disrupt your life or your portfolio.

It is advisable to keep on top of the developments out of Europe, but also to understand the implications. Most important right now might be that Europe is actually addressing its problems. They won't be solved right away and Europe certainly has a long slog ahead. But at least issues such as pensions are being discussed in a manner which the U.S. hasn't even approached.

Take a longer-term view for your longer-term investments. Turn off the TV. Keep the 4% market swing on the latest rumor out of Europe in context. Stay with that portion of your portfolio in high-quality stocks.

And keep cashing those dividend checks.

--Dick Green, Founder and Chairman
MARKET PLACE
SPONSORED LINKS
 
  Follow Us On Linkedin  
 
 
LOGIN

CONTACT US
Support
Sitemap
PREMIUM SERVICES
Take a Tour
Compare Services
Custom Tickers
INSTITUTIONAL SALES
ADVERTISING

CONTENT LICENSING

EMAILS & NEWSLETTERS
ABOUT US
Our Experts
Management Team

COMMUNITY
MEDIA
Events
News
Awards
PRIVACY STATEMENT
Reader Agreement
Policies
Disclaimer
Copyright © Briefing.com, Inc. All rights reserved.
Close
You must log in or register to access this area.
Tip of the Day