EmailEconomic
Last Update: 18-Apr-13 10:28 ET
Leading Indicators
Highlights
- The Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators declined 0.1% in March after increasing 0.5% in both January and February. The Briefing.com consensus expected the index would be flat.
Key Factors
- Since eight of the 10 components of the index are known prior to the release, the difference between the actual number and the consensus is typically minor. In this case, the consensus accurately predicted the Conference Board's estimated growth rates for manufacturing orders of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft and manufacturing orders of consumer goods.
- The pullback in the index was mainly the result of a large reversal in building permits growth. This will likely correct next month and contribute positively to the index.
Big Picture
- The drop in the Leading Indicators Index is likely temporary, and conditions should improve in the coming months.
| Category | MAR | FEB | JAN | DEC | NOV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Index | -0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Manufacturing Workweek | -0.7% | 0.13% | -0.07% | 0.13% | 0.07% |
| Initial Claims | -0.4% | 0.06% | 0.07% | 0.44% | -0.36% |
| Cons. Gds Orders | 0.01% | 0.03% | -0.02% | -0.10% | 0.09% |
| ISM New Orders | -0.08% | 0.05% | -0.04% | -0.11% | -0.09% |
| Nondef. Cap Gds Orders, exc. Aircraft | 0.02% | -0.12% | 0.25% | -0.03% | 0.12% |
| Building Permits | -0.13% | 0.12% | -0.02% | 0.03% | 0.11% |
| Stock Prices | 0.10% | 0.08% | 0.16% | 0.08% | -0.12% |
| Leading Credit Index | 0.11% | 0.12% | 0.17% | 0.10% | 0.09% |
| Interest Rate Spread | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.19% | 0.17% | 0.16% |
| Consumer Expectations | -0.14% | -0.09% | -0.14% | -0.15% | -0.03% |
