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HOME > Calendars >Economic
>Nonfarm Payrolls
Economic
Last Update: 03-May-13 09:12 ET
Nonfarm Payrolls









Highlights

  • On the surface, the employment report for April looked good. Payroll growth exceeded expectations, increasing by 165,000 . That was 10,000 more than the 155,000 expected by the Briefing.com consensus. Revisions in March, to 138,000  from 88,000, and February, to 332,000 from 268,000, were strongly positive.
  • The unemployment rate ticked down to 7.5% in April from 7.6% in March. The consensus expected the unemployment rate to remain at 7.6%.

Key Factors

  • The underlying details point toward weaker consumption levels.
  • The average workweek dropped to 34.4 hours in April from 34.6 and average hourly earnings increased 0.2%.
  • The decline in workweek more than offset the increase in payrolls and earnings. Altogether, aggregate wages declined 0.3% in April. That would be the first decline in wages since January.
    We are working under the assumption that consumers will gradually raise their savings rate back toward the 3.5% that it averaged during most of 2012. If households increase their savings amid declining wages, there is no chance that consumption levels can remain positive.
  • It would not be surprising, given these figures, if retail sales decline for a second consecutive month in April.
  • Unlike in past months, the drop in the unemployment rate was due to more workers finding jobs. The number of employed rose by 293,000.
  • Unfortunately, most of those new jobs were found in part time employment. The number of employed persons working part time for economic reasons increased by 278,000. That could explain why the average workweek shrank.

Big Picture

  • The Fed has stated that rates will remain at its current level until the unemployment rate stabilizes below 6.5% or inflation increases above 2.5%. The employment report confirms that the Fed will not change their policy anytime soon.

Category APR MAR FEB JAN DEC
Establishment Survey
Nonfarm Payrolls 165K 138K 332K 148K 219K
Goods-Producing -9K 15K 75K 41K 58K
Construction -6K 13K 48K 24K 38K
Manufacturing 0K 2K 23K 14K 13K
Service-Providing 185K 139K 244K 123K 166K
Retail Trade 29K -4K 26K 22K 6K
Financial 9K 5K 15K 7K 9K
Business 73K 64K 93K 46K 35K
Temporary help 31K 26K 28K 12K 12K
Education/Health 28K 46K 31K 15K 36K
Leisure/Hospitality 43K 38K 63K 31K 40K
Government -11K -16K 13K -16K -5K
Average Workweek 34.4 34.6 34.5 34.4 34.5
Production Workweek 33.7 33.8 33.8 33.6 33.7
Factory Overtime 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2
Aggregate Hours Index -0.4% 0.4% 0.5% -0.1% 0.5%
Avg Hourly Earnings 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
Household Survey
Household Survey
Civilian Unemp. Rate 7.5% 7.6% 7.7% 7.9% 7.8%
Civilian Labor Force 210K -496K -130K 143K 192K
Civilian Employed 293K -206K 170K 17K 28K
Civilian Unemployed -83K -290K -300K 126K 164K

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