The gain in the ISM index mirrored the trends in all of the regional Federal Reserve regional manufacturing surveys.
New orders increased from 54.8 in December to 57.6 in January. At the same time, order backlogs returned to an expansion phase in January, increasing from 48.0 in December to 52.5.
The gain in orders did not translate into stronger production numbers. Production growth slowed as the January index declined from 58.9 in December to 55.7. We suspect the January deceleration is just normal volatility and that stronger production growth will return next month.
The employment index declined slightly, from 54.8 in December to 54.3 in January. The decline has no bearing on our January payroll estimate.






