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Last Update: 28-Mar-13 09:56 ET
Q4 GDP Revised Higher with Third Estimate
Fourth quarter real GDP was revised up in the third estimate to 0.4% growth. That compared favorably to the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 0.3% growth and the first estimate that showed a 0.1% contraction. The GDP deflator was bumped up to 1.0% (Briefing.com consensus +0.9%) from 0.9%.
The upward revision was owed primarily to nonresidential investment, which increased 13.2% in the third estimate versus 9.7% in the second estimate. That bumped up the contribution to real GDP from nonresidential investment to 1.28 percentage points from 0.96 percentage points. Conversely, personal consumption expenditures growth was revised down to 1.8% from 2.1%. That reduced the contribution to real GDP from PCE to 1.28 percentage points from 1.47 percentage points. Small changes were seen in most other areas, including net exports, which contributed 0.33 percentage points versus 0.24 percentage point sin the second estimate. Real final sales of domestic product, which exclude the change in inventories, increased 1.9% versus 2.4% in the third quarter. The upward revision to Q4 GDP was nice to see, but clearly, growth was weak in the fourth quarter. This report won't have any impact on the market given its dated nature and the understanding that first quarter growth is looking much better at this juncture. Our Q1 GDP forecast currently sits at 2.9%.
The upward revision was owed primarily to nonresidential investment, which increased 13.2% in the third estimate versus 9.7% in the second estimate. That bumped up the contribution to real GDP from nonresidential investment to 1.28 percentage points from 0.96 percentage points. Conversely, personal consumption expenditures growth was revised down to 1.8% from 2.1%. That reduced the contribution to real GDP from PCE to 1.28 percentage points from 1.47 percentage points. Small changes were seen in most other areas, including net exports, which contributed 0.33 percentage points versus 0.24 percentage point sin the second estimate. Real final sales of domestic product, which exclude the change in inventories, increased 1.9% versus 2.4% in the third quarter. The upward revision to Q4 GDP was nice to see, but clearly, growth was weak in the fourth quarter. This report won't have any impact on the market given its dated nature and the understanding that first quarter growth is looking much better at this juncture. Our Q1 GDP forecast currently sits at 2.9%.
