We anticipated that poor seasonal adjustment factors might cause an unexpected decline in the claims level, but that turned out to be unfounded. The Department of Labor reported that there were no special factors influencing the claims level for the second consecutive week.
For the third consecutive week, the initial claims level remained below the upper bound (410,000) of our "Recovery Zone." At this level, payroll growth in excess of the 100,000 needed to support normal labor force growth is expected.
The continuing claims level declined from an upwardly revised 3.725 million (from 3.700 million) for the week ending September 24 to $3.670 million for the week ending October 1. The consensus expected the continuing claims level to fall to 3.700 million.






