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Last Update: 11-Oct-12 11:24 ET
Initial Claims Level Falls on Poor Seasonal Adjustment Factors
The initial jobless claims level fell to 339,000 for the week ending October 6 from 369,000 for the week ending September 29. That is the lowest initial claims level since January 2008. The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to increase to 370,000.
The drop in claims this week was the result of poor seasonal adjustment factors. Typically, workers reapply and recertify their applications at the beginning of every quarter. This leads to a surge in unadjusted claims. The Department of Labor, however, noted that the number of claims from an unnamed state had a sizable decline this week. That caused the overall number of unadjusted claims to increase by a much smaller than expected amount.
After adjusting the claims level using the normal seasonal factors, the seasonally adjusted initial claims level fell substantially. The seasonal adjustment biases will likely last one or two more weeks and the claims level should return to the 350,000 -- 400,000 range.
The continuing claims level fell from 3.288 mln for the week ending September 22 to 3.273 mln for the week ending September 29. The consensus expected the continuing claims level to fall to 3.275 mln.
The drop in claims this week was the result of poor seasonal adjustment factors. Typically, workers reapply and recertify their applications at the beginning of every quarter. This leads to a surge in unadjusted claims. The Department of Labor, however, noted that the number of claims from an unnamed state had a sizable decline this week. That caused the overall number of unadjusted claims to increase by a much smaller than expected amount.
After adjusting the claims level using the normal seasonal factors, the seasonally adjusted initial claims level fell substantially. The seasonal adjustment biases will likely last one or two more weeks and the claims level should return to the 350,000 -- 400,000 range.
The continuing claims level fell from 3.288 mln for the week ending September 22 to 3.273 mln for the week ending September 29. The consensus expected the continuing claims level to fall to 3.275 mln.
