EmailThe initial claims level increased from an upwardly revised 380,000 (from 377,000) for the week ending June 2 to 386,000 for the week ending June 9. The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to fall to 375,000. In February, the initial claims level seemed to have found a stabilization level of roughly 360,000. That level was low enough to support payroll growth in excess of 200,000. After a bout of revisions, the data now show that claims have stabilized at 380,000.
While these levels are not indicative of an oncoming recession, they do not support the payroll gains needed to keep the unemployment rate moving steadily downward. Until claims stabilize below 370,000, the labor market recovery will remain soft and choppy. The continuing claims level declined from an upwardly revised 3.311 mln (from 3.293 mln) for the week ending May 26 to 3.278 mln for the week ending June 2. The consensus expected the continuing claims level to fall to 3.275 mln.
