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Last Update: 27-Oct-11 10:47 ET
Initial Claims Continue to Trend Sideways, Stay Within Our "Recovery Zone"
The initial claims level declined slightly from an upwardly revised 404,000 (from 403,000) for the week ending October 15 to 402,000 for the week ending October 22. That was exactly what the Briefing.com consensus expected.
There were no special factors influencing the initial claims data.
For the past five weeks, the initial claims level has remained below the upper bound (410,000) of our "Recovery Zone." At that level, nonfarm payroll growth in excess of the 100,000 needed to support normal labor force growth is expected.
However, claims have not materially improved during that time as the level has trended almost perfectly sideways.
The continuing claims level declined from an upwardly revised 3.741 mln (from 3.719 mln) for the week ending October 8 to 3.645 mln for the week ending October 15. That is the lowest number of continuing claims since September 2008. The consensus expected continuing claims to fall to 3.700 mln.
There were no special factors influencing the initial claims data.
For the past five weeks, the initial claims level has remained below the upper bound (410,000) of our "Recovery Zone." At that level, nonfarm payroll growth in excess of the 100,000 needed to support normal labor force growth is expected.
However, claims have not materially improved during that time as the level has trended almost perfectly sideways.
The continuing claims level declined from an upwardly revised 3.741 mln (from 3.719 mln) for the week ending October 8 to 3.645 mln for the week ending October 15. That is the lowest number of continuing claims since September 2008. The consensus expected continuing claims to fall to 3.700 mln.
