The October survey reflects a manufacturing region that is still comfortably in an expansion mode, even if it does reflect some modest softening from the prior month. The line of demarcation between expansion and contraction is 50.0.
The new orders index dipped to 61.3 from 65.3 while the production index held fairly steady at 63.4. The prices paid index increased to 66.0 from 62.3.
Notably, the order backlogs index recovered from a contraction phase, jumping to 51.2 from 45.4. Fittingly, the employment index increased to 62.3 from 60.6 and is at its highest level in six months.
The market may have reacted negatively to the headline miss in the business barometer, but this survey in totality is another marker that goes against recession arguments in general and certainly for the Chicago Fed region in particular.






