This report highlights stocks that have seen interesting options activity prior to volatility events and potential catalysts (earnings, rumors, FDA news, etc) . The comment analyzes the options activity and anticipated volatility events, as well as those events that have already materialized. This week's highlights include: BYD/NXPI/ERIC call buying preceding earnings boost, BMC high relative volatility ahead of strength on continued PE speculation and AKAM/GLW/OSIS high relative volatility preceding earnings/guidance moves.
Every day we highlight stocks with unusual options activity (posted under ticker OPTNX). We also highlight heightened near-term implied volatility relative to historical volatility that indicate option market expectations for greater future price movement in the stock (posted under ticker OPTNX - see April 23 OPTNX comment). The increase in implied volatility suggests greater demand for the options, which could be due to any number of known reasons (upcoming earnings, FDA meetings, analyst meetings, etc), or unknown (non-public) reasons. Implied volatility levels rise as demand for the options increases, which is what tends to happen ahead of volatility events. The purpose of the comment is to provide a list of stocks exhibiting this, suggesting they are likely to see tradable volatility events or catalysts in the near future... As a follow-up to this week's comments, we have reviewed some names that we pointed out on the list that ended up seeing large swings.
Recent Events
Select Names Previously Mentioned that Experienced Volatile Moves:
- NXPI call buying preceded this week's 9% jump after the co beat Q1 estimates by $0.23, beat on revs and issued upside guidance. We pointed out last week unusual call activity in the NXPI May 25 calls when volume exceeded 4K contracts (2x the open interest).
- RKT made new multi-year highs this week on earnings (currently set to end ~10 points higher on the week). We pointed out unusual RKT call buying earlier this month in the RKT May 95 calls (see April 3 OPTNX).
- ERIC climbed 4% on April 24 following earnings. We pointed out unusual ERIC bullish call buying the day preceding this move when the underlying stock was seeing relative weakness on Danske downgrade. The same ERIC Jul 12 calls saw volatility selling following earnings (see April 24 10:50 early options comment).
- GLW jumped to new ,multi-month highs after topping Q1 estimates by $0.06 and announcing dividend raising its dividend $2 bln buyback. GLW appeared on our relative heightened volatility the day preceding this move.
- BYD is trading at new 52-week highs (jumped more than 20% higher on Wednesday) following its Q1 results. The May/Sep 9 calls were seeing seeing interest earlier this month with volume surpassing 5K in both (see April 2 14:32). This upside earnings move was in addition to boost from analyst upgrade last week.
- OSIS climbed to more than 9% higher on Wednesday (after gapping lower made 11 point swing) on earnings/guidance/buyback news. The name had appeared on our relative heightened volatility scan for the past two weeks.
- BMC is up more than 3% since reports circulated midweek that KKR and Bain may have separate bids for the company. BMC appeared on our relative heightened volatility scan the day preceding this initial move. Co is in the midst of auctioning itself and is frequently the target of PE speculation (also reports earnings May 7).
- AKAM soared nearly 20% higher yesterday following Q1 results and JPMorgan upgrade. The name appeared on our relative heightened volatility scan this week.
- FIO gapped up to new multi-month highs yesterday (was +19% on the day) following better-than-expected earnings, upside guidance and acquisition news. We pointed out bullish call buying and relative heightened volatility this month ahead of earnings.
- MCK is down 5 points over the past two trading days following peer ABC results/commentary. MCK appeared on our relative heightened volatility scan this week on April 23 (reports earnings May 7 after the close).
- FSL is up 7% today (vs overall weak market) after topping Q1 estimates on top and bottom lines. We pointed out bullish call activity two times over the past month in the FSL May 14 calls (see April 4 and Mar 25 OPTNX comments).
Earnings Related Events - Recent Unusual Options Activity and Anticipated Movers:
- BWLD and RVBD (April 29 after the close) appeared on our relative heightened volatility scan for the past four consecutive weeks
- MNTA (April 30 before the open) and DRIV (May 2 after the close) appeared on our relative heightened volatility scan on April 9.
- JIVE (April 30 after the close) May 12.5 puts were seeing interest yesterday (traded more than 2.5K contracts vs only 210 open interest).
- AVP (April 30 after the close) put activity picked up last week on April 16 when the AVP May 20 puts traded more than 4K contracts vs 810 open interest.
- DGI (earnings expected late April), BDBD (May 2 before the open), IMPV (May 2 after the close) appeared on our relative heightened volatility scan two times this month (April 9 and 16).
- HSP (May 1 before the open), WTW / ARNA (May 2 after the close), AFAM (earnings expected early May), MCK / BMC (May 7 after the close) and BV / NQ (earnings expected early June) appeared on our relative heightened volatility scan this week on April 23.
- IPGP (May 1 before the open) appeared on our relative heightened volatility scan Mar 26 and Apr 2.
- VIAB/PSX (May 1 before the open) both saw bullish call buying on April 15. The VIAB May 70 calls traded 11.5K contracts vs 340 open interest and the PSX May 62.5 calls traded 4.6K contracts vs 2.4K open interest.
- CJES (May 1 after the close) May 18 put volume picked up yesterday with more than 4K contracts trading vs 80 open interest.
- OCN (May 2 before the open) May 52.5 calls were seeing interest this week (more than 3K traded vs only 800 open interest -- see April 22 OPTNX).
- GNRC (reports May 2 before the open) saw unusual call activity earlier this month when the GNRC May 40 calls traded more than 7K contracts vs 6.5K open interest (see April 2). The name also appeared on our relative heightened volatility scan this week.
- CHMT (May 2 after the close) May 20 puts were active yesterday with more than 2K contracts trading vs only 50 open interest.
- SPF (May 2 after the close) Jun 9 puts were seeing interest this week (traded more than 2K contracts vs 1.4K open interest -- see April 24).
- BCOR (May 2 after the close) appeared on our relative heightened volatility last week (April 16).
- KOG (May 2 after the close) saw unusual call buying on April 16 in the KOG Jun 8 calls.
- CLNE (earnings expected early May) May 12/13 calls were seeing interest on Wednesday (coinciding with strength in clean energy/solar names).
- FST (May 6 after the close) saw unusual call buying this week on April 24 when the FST May 5 calls traded ~4K contracts vs 2.2K open interest.
- SYMC (May 7 after the close) and EZCH (May 8 before the open) appeared on our relative heightened volatility for the past two weeks.
Biotech/Drug Related and Other Events:
- SGMO has appeared on our relative heightened volatility scan for four consecutive weeks this month. The co has ongoing Phase 2 clinical trials to evaluate novel ZFP Therapeutics for the treatment of HIV/AIDS. Preliminary data is expected in 1H of 2013. Co is scheduled to present next week on May 1 at Needham Healthcare Conference.
- RPTP appeared on our relative heightened volatility scan this week ahead of its April 30 PDUFA date for RP103. The stock has seen notable upside move this week in anticipation of a potential approval of the company's product candidate.
- LAMR appeared on our relative heightened volatility scan two times this month. The co is actively considering REIT conversion. If the co receives a favorable response and decide to proceed with a REIT election, it intends to make the election for the taxable year beginning January 1, 2014. LAMR reports earnings May 8 before the open (and likely provide REIT update).
- SLXP has appeared on our relative heightened volatility scan four times since the beginning of February. The co continues to work with the FDA for further development and regulatory review of RELISTOR (anticipated conclusion during 2013).The co is scheduled to report earnings May 9 after the close..
M&A Speculation Related:
- BMC appeared on our relative heightened volatility scan this week (subsequently jumped 2% on April 24 following reports that KKR and Bain may have separate bids). The co is in the midst of auctioning itself; there were a number of stories in late March that discussed a consortium formed by TPG and KKR making a bid for the company. BMC reports earnings May 7.
- HLF call activity picked up earlier this month with more than 55K calls trading vs ~14K puts on PE related speculation (see April 11 15:28 OPTNX comment). The rumors arose from KPMG trial (traded charged by SEC for insider trading) with phone recording that suggested the company could go private. The name has also appeared on our relative heightened volatility scan 2x this month. HLF reports earnings April 29 after the close.
- CFN was also seeing unusual call buying on Apr 11 in the Jun 35 calls. Bloomberg discussed in article out over the prior weekend that CFN may be a possible takeover target (see April 15 5:52). The co is confirmed to report earnings May 9 after the close.
- PXP appeared on our relative heightened volatility scan this month with pending FCX acquisition of PXP/MMR. The PXP special stockholders meeting to vote on transaction is May 20 (PXP will report earnings May 2 before the open).
-- Blair Robicheaux
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This report should not be considered a comprehensive list of volatility events -- there may be other scheduled or unscheduled events that represent significant volatility catalysts that are not discussed here.
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