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BriefingTrader Column: The market is getting more of the magical cake so far this morning -- the cake one can eat and continue to have along the way -- as the Spanish unemployment rate skyrockets to 27%+ just days in front of the new ECB announcement, giving cover to the creeping improvement in the US jobs picture, as on display with a nice 339k tag this morning.
The result is more of the spirit noted yesterday on display as the S&P pushes back up near all-time highs into the open. However, for traders, the recent action has been poor once the market opens, with a ton of chop and little direction. In short, we are gapping our way back up toward the highs day by day.
There isn't a lot to fuel a major move here as I see it. My goal is to continue to avoid getting aggressive countertrend. Sentiment continues to support the idea that people are generally skeptical, rather than exuberant or complacent. And that attitudinal bearing is usually consistent with losses for top-pickers, even though it may not also be a guarantee of profits for leverage on the long side.
Gold has worked its way higher overnight as well, and now has some prints back above the 1450 level. This is a potential ceiling if we have a trend still in play. The danger with shorting this metal on this bounce is that the move through support and during the crash got intense enough that the long side feels completely cleaned out. That has me very reluctant to fade sharp upside, which feels a bit like floating up through a vacuum. If I do short in the space, it will likely be in silver.
The existing short in TLT has miraculously managed to hold on and stay alive during the recent treasuries' bounce. I may actually add a piece to that off the open today, or possibly just trade the TBT on the long side for a side trade, as the pattern seems to make sense there.
ETF: SPY
ETF: GLD
ETF: TLT
- Brett Manning (ETF@briefing.com)The ETF Daily Notes report can be found on the Trading Ideas / ETF home page. To read past updates, click here to access the archive. On Live In Play, all ETF Daily Notes-related content can be searched for, and have alerts generated by, the "ETFXX" ticker.
