January Consumer Confidence
Updated 30-Jan-07 10:33 ET
Highlights
- January consumer confidence 110.3 (+0.3%).
Key Factors
- With and upward revision to December to 110.0 (+4.5) leaves the highest level since the same in May 2002.
- Low energy prices add to a stronger outlook for 2007 growth and a tight labor market.
- Components: present situation rose 2.6% as expectations fell -1.9% after a 5% December gain.
- Labor differential (jobs 'plentiful' less 'hard to get') reached a new cyclical high of 10.2.
- 1 year inflation expectations edged lower to 4.7% -- can't explain it as CPI stands at 2.5% yoy.
Big Picture
- The index reached a new 4 1/2 year high in January 2007. Lower energy prices, long term yields and the tight labor market are now added to an improved growth outlook. The index has been extremely volatile over the last year. Mini 'cyclettes' (and large monthly volatility) are evident in the slowing upward trend. Conference Board's survey is far larger and more business heavy than the household-heavy Michigan sentiment index. The index is presumed to provide an early read on consumer spending which is far better previewed through interest rates and income growth.
| Category |
Jan |
Dec |
Nov |
Oct |
Sep |
| Conference Board |
110.3 |
110.0 |
105.3 |
105.1 |
105.9 |
| Expectations |
94.5 |
96.3 |
91.9 |
91.9 |
91.0 |
| Current Conditions |
133.9 |
130.5 |
125.4 |
125.1 |
128.3 |
| Employment ('plentiful' less 'hard to get') |
10.2 |
6.3 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
5.3 |
| 1 yr inflation expectations |
4.7% |
4.8 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
