Factory orders remain surprisingly strong. This is one of the great untold stories of the current business cycle. Factory orders are running over 5% above year-ago levels. In the 2001 recession, factory orders plunged (see the chart above) and were soon down 10% on a year-over-year basis. The strength this cycle is partly related to the boom in exports boosted by the weak dollar. In any case, the manufacturing sector remains far stronger than is widely recognized and shows no signs of a significant downturn.
| Category | Sep | Aug | Jul | Jun | May |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factory Orders | -2.5% | -4.3 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Less Defense | -3.3% | -4.5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Durable Goods | 0.9% | -5.5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| Nondurable Goods | -5.5% | -3.2 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 1.7 |
| Unfilled Factory Orders | 0.4% | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Factory Shipments | -2.8% | -3.7 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| Factory Inventories | -0.7% | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Inventory/Shipment Ratio | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.23 |
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