January Durable Orders

Updated 09-Mar-10 19:30 ET

Highlights

Durable goods orders rose 3.0% in January after increasing 1.9% in December. The consensus expected a more modest 1.5% gain.
Excluding transportation, orders slipped 0.6% after increasing 2.0% in December. The consensus estimate called for a 1.0% increase.

Strangely, even though auto assemblies rocketed higher in January, motor vehicle orders fell 2.2%. The drop may correspond with higher motor vehicle inventories in the coming months.
After a strong Q4 2009, growth in business investment seems to have slowed.
Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 2.9% after increasing roughly 3.3% in both November and December. Shipments of these goods, which are directly imputed into GDP calculations, declined 1.5% in January.

Durable goods orders trends were very weak in late 2008 and early 2009. That reflected a collapse of confidence in the business sector and poor credit market conditions. The rate of decline has eased and there has been some intermittent increases of late that suggest the worst of the downturn is over. Still, the business investment outlook can be considered weak.

Category	JAN	DEC	NOV	OCT	SEP
Total Durable Orders	3.0%	1.9%	-0.4%	-0.1%	2.2%
Less Defense	1.6%	1.7%	0.1%	1.2%	2.0%
Less Transport	-0.6%	2.0%	2.0%	-0.5%	2.1%
Transportation	15.6%	1.5%	-7.8%	1.3%	2.7%
Capital Goods	6.6%	2.2%	-3.2%	-1.5%	3.8%
Nondefense	4.7%	2.5%	-3.0%	2.0%	3.4%
Nondefense/nonaircraft (core cap gds)	-2.9%	3.3%	3.2%	-1.8%	2.9%
Defense Cap Goods	19.2%	0.4%	-4.4%	-19.2%	5.9%