Briefing.com


November Consumer Confidence

Updated 30-Nov-08 20:10 ET




Highlights

  • Consumer confidence seems to have gotten a boost from lower gas prices.  There isn't much else to explain the November increase. 

Key Factors

    Big Picture

    • Consumer sentiment indices get way too much attention.  The simple fact is that sentiment does not correlate with consumer spending and thus has little predictive value.  Consumer spending correlates more closely with income.  Sentiment tends to reflect well known factors such as unemployment rates and gas prices more than it predicts future spending patterns.

    Category Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul
    Conference Board 44.9 38.8 61.4 58.5 51.9
      Expectations 46.7 35.7 61.5 54.1 42.7
      Present Situation 42.2 43.5 61.1 65.0 65.8
    Employment ('plentiful' less 'hard to get') 28.4 -27.6 -19.6 -18.2 -16.6
    1 yr inflation expectations 5.9% 6.8 6.2 6.6 7.5