November Consumer Confidence
Updated 30-Nov-08 20:10 ET
Highlights
- Consumer confidence seems to have gotten a boost from lower gas prices. There isn't much else to explain the November increase.
Key Factors
Big Picture
- Consumer sentiment indices get way too much attention. The simple fact is that sentiment does not correlate with consumer spending and thus has little predictive value. Consumer spending correlates more closely with income. Sentiment tends to reflect well known factors such as unemployment rates and gas prices more than it predicts future spending patterns.
| Category |
Nov |
Oct |
Sep |
Aug |
Jul |
| Conference Board |
44.9 |
38.8 |
61.4 |
58.5 |
51.9 |
| Expectations |
46.7 |
35.7 |
61.5 |
54.1 |
42.7 |
| Present Situation |
42.2 |
43.5 |
61.1 |
65.0 |
65.8 |
| Employment ('plentiful' less 'hard to get') |
28.4 |
-27.6 |
-19.6 |
-18.2 |
-16.6 |
| 1 yr inflation expectations |
5.9% |
6.8 |
6.2 |
6.6 |
7.5 |
