EmailEconomic
Last Update: 02-May-13 08:58 ET
Trade Balance
Highlights
- The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in March, falling from an upwardly revised $43.6 bln (from $43.0 bln) to $38.8 bln. The Briefing.com consensus pegged the deficit at $43.0 bln.
Key Factors
- According to the advance Q1 2013 GDP report, the BEA assumed the trade deficit was roughly $42.0 bln in March. The lower-than-expected deficit will likely lead to an upward revision in the second estimate of first quarter economic growth.
- The goods deficit fell to $56.1 bln in March from $60.8 bln in February. The services surplus increased to $16.3 bln from $17.1 bln.
- Export levels fell $1.7 bln in March to $184.3 bln from $186.0 bln. Large declines in foods (-$1.0 bln) and petroleum-based products (-$1.1 bln) outweighed gains in aircraft parts ($0.8 bln) and nonmonetary gold ($0.5 bln).
- Imports declined by $6.5 bln to $223.1 bln in March from $229.6 bln in February. Most of the decline was due to weaker demand for consumer goods (-$3.4 bln) – specifically toys and games (-$1.0 bln) – and computers (-1.1 bln). Petroleum-based imports fell $0.4 bln in March.
Big Picture
- Stronger dollar, weakness in Europe, and a slowdown in Asia will all lead to softer export growth in the near term.
| Category | MAR | FEB | JAN | DEC | NOV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Deficit | $38.8B | $43.6B | $44.5B | $38.1B | $48.2B |
| Exports | $184.3B | $186.0B | $184.4B | $186.6B | $182.5B |
| Imports | $223.1B | $229.6B | $228.9B | $224.8B | $230.8B |
