

Highlights
- The number of housing starts increased 7.0% in March from an upwardly revised 968,000 (from 917,000) in February to 1.036 mln. That was the first time housing starts exceeded 1.00 mln units since 2008. The Briefing.com consensus pegged the number of new housing starts at 930,000.
- The number of building permits issued in March fell 3.9% to 902,000 from a downwardly revised 939,000 (from 946,000) in February. The consensus pegged the number of building permit issuances at 945,000.
Key Factors
- The underlying trends were more mixed than the headline implies.
- Multifamily construction, which tends to be highly volatile, made up the entire March gain. Those starts increased by nearly 100,000 from 318,000 in February to an unsustainable 417,000. Multifamily construction will likely retreat next month.
- Single-family starts fell from 650,000 in February to 619,000 in March. That was the first decline since November. The decline is likely not the start of a new steady downward path, as the February starts number was well above trend following a substantial upward revision (from 618,000). Excluding the February gain, single-family starts have remained flat since December.
- Assuming that single-family starts remains on their previous trend, the overall data suggests housing starts will fall back toward 950,000 next month.
- The number of homes under construction increased by 2.1% in March to 591,000 from 579,000 in February. Like the starts data, all of the gain came from the multifamily sector. Single-family units under construction remained at 291,000 for a second consecutive month.
Big Picture
- Housing starts will likely see a correction in April following an unsually large gain in multifamily construction.
| Category | MAR | FEB | JAN | DEC | NOV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starts | 1036K | 968K | 902K | 982K | 841K |
| 1 Unit | 619K | 650K | 616K | 617K | 570K |
| Multi Units | 417K | 318K | 286K | 365K | 271K |
| Permits | 902K | 939K | 904K | 909K | 900K |





