EmailEconomic
Last Update: 13-May-13 08:48 ET
Retail Sales
Highlights
- Retail sales increased 0.1% in April after declining 0.5% in March. The Briefing.com consensus expected retail sales to decline 0.3%.
- Excluding motor vehicle sales, retail sales fell 0.1% in April after declining 0.4% in March. The consensus expected these sales to fall 0.2%.
Key Factors
- The April employment report showed a 0.3% decline in aggregate wages. The increase in sales was a result of consumers reducing their savings rate. That may work in the short-run, but consumers are expected eventually to increase their savings rate back to 2012 levels. Unless income growth accelerates, retail sales growth will likely decelerate and possibly contract in the long-run.
- Considering the fall in aggregate income levels, core sales, which exclude the highly volatile motor vehicle dealers, building materials and supplies dealers, and gasoline stations, rose an astonishing 0.5% in April. That was up from a 0.1% gain in March and the strongest increase since December 2012.
- Motor vehicle sales increased 1.0%. That gain was well above expectations considering that motor vehicle manufacturers reported a sharp decline in demand in April.
- Excluding motor vehicle sales, retail sales fell 0.1% in April after declining 0.4% in March. The consensus expected these sales to fall 0.2%.
- The sales decline outside of motor vehicles was primarily the result of lower gasoline prices. Sales at gasoline stations fell 4.7% in April after declining 3.2% in March.
- Clothing (1.2%), general merchandise (1.0%) and nonstore retailers (1.4%) all registered strong gains in April.
Big Picture
- Without an upturn in income growth, retail sales growth cannot stay positive over the long-term.
| Category | APR | MAR | FEB | JAN | DEC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales | 0.1% | -0.5% | 1.1% | -0.1% | 0.5% |
| Excluding Autos | -0.1% | -0.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Durable goods | |||||
| Building Materials | 1.5% | -1.0% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| Autos/parts | 1.0% | -0.6% | 1.4% | -0.8% | 1.4% |
| Furniture | 0.0% | 1.1% | -0.8% | 0.2% | 1.3% |
| Nondurable goods | |||||
| General Merchandise | 1.0% | -0.7% | 0.7% | -0.2% | 0.5% |
| Food | -0.8% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Gasoline stations | -4.7% | -3.2% | 5.3% | 0.3% | -1.6% |
| Clothing | 1.2% | 0.7% | -0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% |
| e*retailing/non-store | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
