Last Update: 01-Dec-14 10:19 ET
- The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 58.7 in November from 59.0 in October. The Briefing.com consensus expected the index to fall to 58.0.
- Nearly all of the regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys showed accelerated manufacturing growth in November. The slight pullback in the national index goes against those trends. Still, manufacturing activities were stronger than consensus expectations and remains close to Q1 2011 highs.
- The Production Index fell to 64.4 in November from 64.8 in October. The slight softening in production was result of manufacturers delaying production until a later time and not from a drop-off in new demand. New orders improved as the related index increased to 66.0 in November from 65.8 in October. Meanwhile, order backlogs increased to 55.0 in November from 53.0 in October.
- The Employment Index dipped to 54.9 in November from 55.5 in October. Those levels are still strong enough to support overall manufacturing payroll growth.
- Prices contracted for the first time since July 2013 in November. The related index fell to 44.5 from 53.5 in October. That was the lowest level since the index fell to 39.5 in July 2012.
- This is a highly overrated index. It is merely a survey of purchasing managers. It is a diffusion index, which means that it reflects the number of people saying conditions are better compared to the number saying conditions are worse. It does not weight for size of the firm, or for the degree of better/worse. It can therefore underestimate conditions if there is a great deal of strength in a few firms. The data have thus not been either a good forecasting tool or a good read on current conditions during this business cycle. It must be recognized that the index is not hard data of any kind, but simply a survey that provides broad indications of trends.
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