Last Update: 25-Mar-15 10:18 ET
- Durable goods orders declined 1.4% in February after increasing a downwardly revised 2.0% (from 2.8%) in January. The Briefing.com Consensus expected durable goods orders to increase 0.4%.
- Excluding transportation, durable goods orders declined 0.4% in February after declining a downwardly revised 0.7% (from 0.0%) in January. The consensus expected these orders to increase 0.3%.
- Aircraft orders, which played a major role in the overall orders increase for January, reversed direction in February. Total aircraft orders – defense and nondefense – declined 14.0% in February after increasing 68.1% in January.
- The latest regional manufacturing surveys were extremely downbeat and the national ISM New Orders Index fell to a 23-month low in February. The actual hard orders data confirmed the weakness represented in those surveys.
- Nearly every major durable goods manufacturing sector saw a decline in orders in February. Only primary metals (+1.0%) and electrical equipment, appliances, and components (+4.1%) were in the black.
- It’s hard to blame weather conditions for the decline in orders. Shipments of durable goods excluding aircraft – which is a measure of production and requires workers to be physically in the factories – were only down a modest 0.1% in February after declining 1.5% in January.
- Business investment demand weakened considerably in February. Orders of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft declined 1.4% after declining only 0.1% in January. That was the largest contraction in business capital goods since declining 1.9% in October 2014.
- The impact of falling demand on first quarter GDP growth, however, will be limited. Shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft managed a small 0.2% increase in February after declining 0.4% in January.
- Orders of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for business investment, have declined for the past 6 consecutive months.
|Total Durable Orders
|Nondefense/nonaircraft (core cap gds)
|Defense Cap Goods