EmailEconomic
Last Update: 09-May-13 08:46 ET
Initial Claims
Highlights
- The initial claims level fell from an upwardly revised 327,000 (from 324,000) for the week ending April 27 to 323,000 for the week ending May 4. The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to increase to 336,000.
- The continuing claims level fell to 3.005 mln for the week ending April 27 from an upwardly revised 3.032 mln (from 3.019 mln) for the week ending April 20. The consensus pegged the continuing claims level at 3.019 mln.
Key Factors
- Initial claims are at their lowest level since January 2008.
- Typically, a sub-350,000 initial claims level would imply that payrolls would grow by at least 200,000. However, with uncertain demand, it is not guaranteed that firms will add to their workforce. The economy could be in a stagnating situation where businesses are content with their current employment levels and are finding it unnecessary to hire more workers or fire existing ones.
Big Picture
- The seasonal adjustment problems from the Easter holiday have passed, and claims are back on their previous sub-350,000 trend.
| Category | May 4 | Apr 27 | Apr 20 | Apr 13 | Apr 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 323K | 327K | 342K | 355K | 348K |
| 4-Wk Moving Avg | 337K | 343K | 358K | 362K | 359K |
| Continued Benefits | 3005K | 3032K | 3007K | 3093K | |
| 4-Wk Moving Avg | 3034K | 3059K | 3074K | 3089K |
