The 10-year and other Treasury yield charts are linked off the Charts and Data listing.  Longer term charts are linked to the listings below. 

10 year yields continue higher to 4.9% this morning -- the highest yields since mid 2002.  Last week's Fed policy directive suggested another policy hike in May to 5% as concern regarding contined policy tightening provides direction.  Adding on is concern about foreign demand for Treasurys as January's net purchases were the weakest since the decline in February 2003.  This week includes the market sensitive report on ISM manufacturing (and non-manufacturing) and ends with the March employment report as the unemployment rate or hourly earnings are as likely to be the story as the size of the payroll gain. 

The outlook for long term yields in the quarter ahead includes increased upward risk from pricing pressures as continued Fed tightening helps to push longer term yields higher.  The inflation outlook includes continued pressure on core CPI as energy prices risk a lagged response and reduced economic excesses (i.e. unemployment) provide the cyclical pressure.   Softening foreign demand for Treasuries are beginning to provide a lift in long term yields but the key question of the severity and longevity of the weakening global demand is what provides the forward direction.  A 5% 10-year yield is now only 10 bps away and is quite likely in the months ahead if foreign demand for Treasurys weakens and expectations for Fed tightening continues above 5% .