Ready. Set

Last Update: 05-Nov-09 16:07 ET

10-Yr: unch..3.526%.. USD/JPY: 90.7650.. EUR/USD: 1.4876

Ready. Set: The market was mixed with the longer maturities getting hit while the shorter end holds in as the Fed remains at "excessively low" rates for an "extended period." The day was quiet as most of the major event risk has come and gone and all that's left is tomorrow's jobs report. That's all. Just the jobs report. The market is looking for a loss of less than 200K jobs, but that "good" news may be accompanied by an unemployment rate in the neighborhood of 10%. Not good, but the market may be ready to ride that out having been well prepared (by the officials no less) for the possibility. The VIX seems to be fairly sanguine, comparatively, about the report, hanging at the week's lows, which goes back to what many have said about an early year end, with no one wanting to play if the year has been OK ("why stick your neck, or your bonus out?"). Some central banks, if they have not begun raising rates, have started talking about assorted "exit strategies" for sundry "extraordinary measures" (talking being the operative word here) or trimming back some of those measures. How much the market buys into this talk and its timeframe is hard to say, with the market betting the funds rate will be on hold until at least mid-2010, but the talk has continued with perhaps a more serious tone, and there is no question the market will have plenty of warning as policy makers try to ease things through a sticky exit. Curves have been trading generally steeper with the mid-curve spreads leaning a touch flatter, which should continue to be the flavor of the day through to the data tomorrow. The 2-10-yr yield spread is holding near the steepest since late-July at 265.3. The dollar was under pressure throughout the session with the index holding near 75.75. The euro was working the 1.4870 point while pulling back toward 135 yen. The yen was caught near 90.65. The day ahead has the jobs report, which in light of the upside surprise in productivity may get a harder than normal look at the work week input (8:30), wholesale inventories (10) and consumer credit (15). Fed-speak kicks off with Chicago's Evans (9:45) and gov Duke (11:30).

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