Holding Higher

Last Update: 30-Jul-10 14:24 ET

10-Yr: +17+/32..2.916%.. USD/JPY: 86.39.. EUR/USD: 1.3060Holding Higher: The market has taken another run at the highs with the 10-yr ticking just through the 2.9% point while the while the 30-yr is angling for the 3.945% area from late last week. The curve continues to flatten out as the short end lags with the current 2-10-yr yield spread running 235.3 with 234.5 likely sticky and 232.8 the next stopping point. Size remains dismal and players are already, already talking about next week's big payrolls number (range rover through the spread) with the +10K to -175K on economists' estimates not likely ugly enough. The unemployment rate is expected to bump up a bit to 9.6% after its drop to 9.5% from 9.7%, still not a pretty number. The disappointing data on the day has added to the pessimists' views. As Briefing.com economist Jeff Rosen noted this morning: The BEA re-estimated all of the data from 2007 though Q1 2010 for its annual benchmark revisions. Q1 2010 GDP was revised up from 2.7% to 3.4%. Since the consensus forecast was based upon the pre-revision data, Q2 GDP was actually substantially higher than estimated... The revisions, though, lent credence to what many people on Main Street had been thinking. The recession was deeper than originally expected and the recovery effort has been a little slower... From its peak in Q4 2007, GDP contracted 4.10% to its trough in Q2 2009. This was roughly 0.44 percentage points less than originally thought. The recovery effort through Q1 2010 only produced an increase in output of 2.57%, about 0.05 percentage points below the previously released data.
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