Global mobile device leader Nokia (NOK 12.85, -1.30) announced earlier
today that it expects a global economic slowdown, softer consumer spending, and
tighter credit conditions to lead to lower industry volume.
Though Nokia expects fourth quarter industry mobile device volume to be up
sequentially, actual quarterly volume is likely to be lower than previously
estimated. In turn, full year industry volume is also expected to come in below
previous estimates, but continue to reflect growth from 2007. Nokia expects
industry mobile device volume will be down in 2009, though, given the
persistence of current headwinds.
Fewer handset sales will undoubtedly pressure the company's performance.
During the third quarter fewer handset sales caused revenue to slip 5%
year-over-year. The result was revenue of 12.24 billion euro, a bit below the
consensus of 12.86 billion euro. The top line was actually up 1% year-over-year
with constant currency.
Nokia's third quarter earnings were on par with expectations, totaling 0.33
euro per share. They were down from 0.41 euro the year before, however.
Nokia expects fourth quarter handset sales and profitability to be negatively
impacted by current conditions.
Such developments are certainly disappointing, but unsurprising given the
challenges facing global companies.
Nokia remains an industry leader, though, boasting considerable fundamental
strength. Plus, with shares now trading at a new 52-week low we believe any
fear of a global slowdown is fully priced into the stock, making an opportunity
for long-term investors to increase their stake or initiate a position in Nokia.
Nokia is not invulnerable to macro headwinds, but its global footprint and
strong product portfolio are enviable traits that will help protect it from
current challenges and outperform in the long run.
Concerns regarding competition and pricing pressures are misplaced. Nokia
offers interactive smartphones of its own, but the company's primary focus
remains providing products to low- and mid-markets across the globe. Developing
such relationships has given Nokia a stronghold in the international market,
while also establishing in-roads to customers turned off by steep price tags
attached to Apple's (AAPL 92.88, -3.96) iPhones and Research In
Motion's (RIMM 41.21, -2.59) BlackBerry -- which have slower acceptance and
recognition in a huge international market.
Moreover, Nokia's low cost structure helps protect its profitability from
competitors' attempts to woo customers with cheaper products. In fact, the
company's low cost structure enables it to undercut competitors' where it sees
fit, making this a prime environment for Nokia to further increase its share of
the global market.
Despite Nokia's strengths, its shares still carry some risk amid ongoing
market mayhem. However, the recent downturn has limited some of the stock's
downside risk, and also resulted in rich dividend yield of 6.5%. With a
compelling PEG ratio of just 0.4x, the stock's long-term potential outweighs
near-term downside risk.
(Disclosure: Analyst owns shares of Nokia)
--Jeffrey Ham, Briefing.com